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Figure 6. Decoupling statuses of PBEs and CBEs in the B&R countries. (A) PBEs; (B) CBEs; (C) PBEs; (D) CBEs.

Figure 7B-D illustrates the decoupling status of CBEs. Between 2005 and 2013, 76.81% of economies were in
SD or WD, compared with 73.19% during 2013-2021, again showing a decrease in the number of decoupled
countries. In this later period, Congo, Libya, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Argentina experienced SND, while
several Sub-Saharan African countries, such as Sudan and the Central African Republic, worsened from
SND to END. Detailed country-level results for production- and consumption-based CH decoupling are
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listed in Supplementary Table 3.

Decoupling decomposition
Table 1 shows the contribution drivers of CH emissions within the B&R countries. The economic level (EL)
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was identified as the primary driver of both PBEs and CBEs. Its contribution was highest in Northeast Asia
and Southeast Asia. Population size (P) also contributed to the growth of CH emissions, with the strongest
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impact observed in West Asia and the Middle East. When comparing the decoupling performance of
specific countries or regions, notable differences emerge. The B&R region has strong economic growth
potential; thus, further efforts to control CH emissions will be necessary if the region aims to balance
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climate risk mitigation with improvements in living standards. This indicates that the B&R region may face
challenges in achieving a high level of decoupling due to its growth-oriented economic model. Emission
intensity (EI) exerted a significant inhibitory effect, especially in Western Europe and Central & Eastern
Europe. In contrast, North Africa experienced a marked increase in emission intensity (EI) due to its
declining GDP. In Western Europe, the contribution of emissions intensity (EI) exceeded 80%, playing a
decisive role in reducing CH emissions and supporting the achievement of a SD state. The strong
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decoupling observed in Western Europe is attributed to advanced technological development and stringent
environmental policies, which have effectively lowered emission intensities.