Page 70 - Read Online

Page 12 of 20 Han et al. Carbon Footprints 2025, 4, 25 https://dx.doi.org/10.20517/cf.2025.18

Table 1. Driving factors of CH emissions in the B&R countries during 2005-2021
4
PBEs (%) CBEs (%)
Country/Region
△EI △IS △EL △P △EI △IS △EL △P
BR countries -40.50% -0.38% 43.37% 15.75% -40.27% -0.39% 44.37% 14.97%
Northeast Asia -20.20% -0.99% 74.53% 4.29% -37.33% -0.77% 58.12% 3.77%
Central Asia -42.39% -0.29% 41.60% 15.73% -45.35% -0.28% 39.56% 14.82%
South Asia -35.27% -0.43% 42.98% 21.32% -37.09% -0.42% 41.72% 20.78%
Southeast Asia -34.43% -0.43% 50.03% 15.11% -24.83% -0.48% 57.78% 16.91%
West Asia and Middle East -24.24% -0.71% 16.97% 58.07% -32.94% -0.64% 16.61% 49.81%
Central and Eastern Europe -52.43% -0.51% 41.97% -5.08% -50.18% -0.55% 44.26% -5.01%
Western Europe -79.00% -2.06% -11.95% 6.99% -84.81% -1.36% -7.93% 5.91%
North Africa -45.85% -1.08% -2.74% 50.32% 45.68% -0.98% -8.69% 44.65%
Sub-Saharan Africa -37.21% -0.47% 21.22% 41.10% -34.98% -0.51% 20.47% 44.04%
North America -47.99% -0.58% 36.37% 15.06% -49.87% -0.53% 35.90% 13.70%
South America -45.36% -0.68% 30.95% 23.01% -46.50% -0.65% 30.95% 21.90%
Oceania -49.13% -0.63% 20.81% 29.44% -53.51% -0.59% 19.05% 26.85%

Figure 7. CH emission decoupling statuses of the B&R countries. (A) PBEs; (B) CBEs; (C) PBEs; (D) CBEs. Note: GS (2016) 1666.
4
To identify the driving factors, the decomposition factors were analyzed in Figure 8. From a production-
based perspective, CH emissions in the B&R countries increased rapidly after 2009, rising by 8.78% in 2009-
4
2013. After 2013, the growth rate slowed to 3.89% during 2013-2017. The results show that economic level
and population size were the main contributors to rising CH emissions, with the economic level being
4
dominant. Its contribution declined from 20.31% in 2005-2009 to 7.85% in 2017-2021. The contribution of
population size was lower, fluctuating around 5%. Emission intensity reduced CH emissions, with its
4
largest effect observed in 2005-2009 (-20.49%), decreasing to around -5% in 2017-2021, yet still playing a
critical role in mitigation. In comparison, industrial structure made only a negligible contribution to
emission reductions.