Page 83 - 2417
P. 83

Page 14 of 26                                              Salmerón et al. Carbon Footprints 2026, 5, 17





               to a negative net impact (-0.11 Mt CO -eq·year ). Although managing this extra biomass increases the
                                                         -1
                                                 2
               impacts of biochar production by 33% and transport by 47% compared to S2, these operational costs are
               outweighed by -1.10 Mt CO -eq·year  and -2.54 Mt CO -eq·year  from the soil carbon sequestration and
                                               -1
                                                                       -1
                                                               2
                                       2
               electricity benefits, respectively.
               Scenarios S4 and S5 with higher AVS deployment lead to greater mitigation. In S4, the extensive PV
               infrastructure adds 1.48 Mt CO -eq·year  of positive emissions. However, this is overwhelmed by the
                                                   -1
                                           2
               negative emissions from electricity generation (-5.25 Mt CO -eq·year ), resulting in a total net impact of
                                                                           -1
                                                                    2
               -0.94 Mt CO -eq·year . Finally, scenario S5 delivers the largest climate benefit, combining high AVS
                                  -1
                          2
               deployment with maximum biochar production to reach -2.08 Mt CO -eq·year . Here, positive emissions are
                                                                                 -1
                                                                          2
               driven by farming operations (63%) and PV manufacturing (35%), while the system's negative emissions are
               derived 83% from electricity benefits and 17% from the durable biochar sink.
               The application of biochar creates a long-lasting carbon sink at an annual rate of 0.82 Mt CO -eq·year  (S1,
                                                                                                      -1
                                                                                              2
               S2) to 1.1 Mt CO -eq·year  (S3, S5). This represents a significant contribution, equivalent to offsetting 13% to
                                    -1
                             2
               17% of Andalusia's 2023 agricultural emissions (6.36 Mt CO -eq·year ) . While diverting biomass from
                                                                           -1 [79]
                                                                   2
               combustion to soil storage promotes a circular model, it introduces an energy trade-off, as baseline power
               plants achieve a lower carbon intensity (32 g CO -eq kWh ) compared to the pyrolysis unit
                                                                         -1
                                                               2
               (55 g CO -eq kWh ). Nevertheless, our estimates show that agrivoltaic systems occupying just 0.11% of the
                               -1
                      2
               total olive grove area can fully offset this deficit, thereby securing the agronomic and sequestration benefits
               of biochar without compromising the region's energy capacity.
               A sensitivity analysis, using the projected 2030 electricity mix (72% lower carbon intensity than 2024 ) is
                                                                                                      [49]
               used to estimate the future energy benefits, shows that mitigation benefits are drastically reduced [Figure 5B].
               Under these conditions, baseline and scenario S1 remain unchanged, while net impacts shift to 1.98 ± 0.48
               (S2), 1.72 ± 0.49 (S3), 2.84 ± 0.56 (S4), and 1.71 ± 0.54 (S5) Mt CO -eq·year . Despite this reduction, most
                                                                                -1
                                                                        2
               scenarios still deliver average emission reductions compared to the baseline (30% for S2, 39% for S3, and 40%
               for S5), but uncertainty ranges are closer. Notably, S4 resulted in a negligible reduction of just 0.08%
               compared to the baseline, with uncertainty ranges that overlap significantly. Regardless, the structural decline
               in substitution credits underscores the essential role of biochar in providing robust climate change
               mitigation, ensuring net-negative emissions even when grid decarbonization diminishes the environmental
               value of renewable energy generation.


               Although the sensitivity analysis frames the climate benefits from large-scale electricity generation as a
               temporary climate offset, this should not mask its profound contribution to national decarbonization goals.
               The 26 to 52 TWh of renewable electricity generated annually [Table 2] corresponds to a regional renewable
               surplus of 115%-230% identified in Section "Scenarios potentials" [Figure 4B]. This capacity is essential for
               the energy transition, enabling the decarbonization of the grid and improvements in energy security. In
               addition to promoting more sustainable land uses, the proposed scenarios offer two complementary
               pathways for climate change mitigation: a durable carbon sink through biochar-carbon storage in
               agricultural soil and a large source of clean energy through AVS that can support a phase out of obsolescence
               fossil fuel energy from the grid.


               Other environmental impacts
               Figure 6 provides the results for other environmental impact categories, normalized to the baseline to allow
               for comparative interpretation. Absolute values are provided in Supplementary Tables 17-22.
   78   79   80   81   82   83   84   85   86   87   88