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broader livelihood recovery and adaptation needs. An exploratory regenerative-agriculture scenario for existing
agricultural mosaics indicates a potential for 180-350 tCO 2 e yr of additional carbon removals, roughly
-1
US$4,000-14,000 yr , which can further support livelihood resilience. This study shows that the vulnerability-based
-1
avoid-deforestation approach can not only expand high-integrity REDD+ accounting to smallholder territories but
also function as a targeting and planning tool to direct climate finance where marginal incentives are more likely to
influence land-use decisions within broader resilience and development strategies, depending on local
socio-economic and ecological conditions.

INTRODUCTION
Smallholders, typically family-managed farms of only a few hectares, occupy a central yet paradoxical
position in global land-use and climate debates. They represent a large share of the world’s farms and
contribute significantly to food production and dietary diversity despite each operating on only a small
fraction of global land . Many smallholders live in ecologically marginal and frontier areas, particularly
[1-3]
forest-dependent communities in the Global South, marked by facing sharply reduced forest resources and
[4]
limited adaptive capacity due to structural constraints in assets, infrastructure, insurance, and public
services . For example, in the Amazon, through command-and-control measures, large properties have
[5]
accounted for much of the deforestation reduction before 2010 , but the recent decline in deforestation
[6]
reductions calls into question the continued effectiveness of current policy measures. Additionally, the
relative contribution of smallholder-dominated areas to ongoing Amazon deforestation has significantly
increased and even become dominant . In the Congo Basin, an estimated 84% of forest disturbance is due to
[7]
small-scale, nonmechanized forest clearing for agriculture . More alarmingly, the most recent forest loss
[8]
occurred primarily in small patches with a high likelihood of illegality [7,9-11] . These patterns highlight the
growing tension among livelihood, food security and forest conservation in smallholder landscapes across
the Global South. More importantly, to further curb deforestation to meet climate targets and to address
environmental issues (e.g. eutrophication and extreme events) [12-14] in the Global South, efforts need to shift
to smallholder territories.

At the same time, smallholders and traditional communities historically had less fragmented and less
degraded forests than large-estate frontiers, and a growing body of evidence shows that their territories could
be highly effective for climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation when underpinned by secure
collective rights and appropriate incentives [15-17] . Indigenous, traditional and communal territories with
secure rights often experience lower deforestation than strictly protected areas, due to local monitoring,
social norms and governance structures tailored to the landscape [18-21] . Agroforestry and forest-fallow mosaics
provide diversified livelihoods, subsistence products and ecological stability, further maintaining higher
levels of biodiversity, carbon and microclimatic regulation than simplified agricultural systems [22,23] .
Therefore, forest-dependent smallholders in the Global South typically care for both their crop and forest
lands and know how to protect them, but rising climate and economic pressures increasingly push them to
intensify land use and clear forests.

Despite this dual reality of vulnerability and stewardship, only a tiny share of global climate finance -
approximately 1.7% - reaches smallholders in developing countries, creating a mismatch between where
climate risks and deforestation pressures are concentrated and where financial resources are urgently
[14]
needed . In Brazil and other tropical countries, these financing gaps intersect with historical patterns of
[24]
territorial marginalization for traditional peoples, including Quilombola communities, which often face
delayed land regularization, under-investment in basic services, and disproportionate exposure to
climate-related disasters despite the demonstrated conservation performance of their territories. Quilombola