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Original Article | Open Access

Carbon Footprints

Chaib et al. Carbon Footprints 2026, 5, 23 DOI:10.20517/cf.2026.09

A vulnerability-based approach for smallholder-led
forest conservation

João Chaib 1,2 , Christianne Corsini 1 , Michael Davies , Gwendolyn Smith , Camilla Pinheiro , Danilo
1
4
3
Centeno 5 , Niavo Ratsimbazafy , Raul Feldmann , Hongjun Wang 1
1
1
Keywords:
Amazon, avoided
deforestation, dynamic
baseline, livelihood
vulnerability, nature-based
solutions, traditional
communities, REDD+,
regenerative agriculture
Citation: Chaib, J.;
Corsini, C.; Davies, M.;
Smith, G.; Pinheiro, C.;
Centeno, D.;
Ratsimbazafy, N.;
Feldmann, R.; Wang, H. A
vulnerability-based
approach for
smallholder-led forest
conservation. Carbon Abstract
Footprints 2026, 5, 23.
https://dx.doi.org/10.20517 Smallholders account for a growing share of forest loss while holding a disproportionate
/cf.2026.09 capacity to conserve and restore forests. Yet most Reducing Emissions from Deforestation
and Forest Degradation (REDD+) methodologies remain scale- and actor-neutral, offering
Received: 20 Jan 2026
First Decision: 10 Mar no systematic mechanism to equitably support these highly vulnerable rural communities.
2026 This study pilots a vulnerability-based avoided deforestation methodology in the Curiaú
Revised: 23 Mar 2026 Quilombola territory (Amapá, Brazil), integrating a livelihood-vulnerability filter with a
Accepted: 14 Apr 2026 locality-matched dynamic baseline built from 10 m MapBiomas land-cover data and an
Published: 6 May 2026
independent accuracy assessment. A survey of 123 of 505 households is used to compute
Academic Editor: Livelihood Vulnerability Indexes, which indicate that Curiaú presents a level of vulnerability
Miguel Brandão consistent with eligibility for carbon finance under the applied framework. The dynamic
Copy Editor: baseline implies an annual deforestation rate of 0.70% and baseline emissions of
Fangling Lan
Production Editor: 2,540 tCO 2 e, of which 2,032 tCO 2 e are conservatively creditable after a 20% buffer
-1
Fangling Lan deduction. At illustrative prices of 20-40 US$ tCO 2 e , these credits would yield roughly
US$40,000-80,000 yr , sufficient to support edge-forest protection and co-finance the
-1
restoration of some flood-affected cropland and pasture, but still insufficient to meet

1 Social Carbon Foundation, London E17 3NU, UK.
2 Institute of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (Unesp), Sorocaba 18087-180, Brazil.
3 ReSeed P.B.C., Public Benefit Corporation, Pittsburgh, PA 15219, USA.
4 Equipe de Conservação da Amazônia (ECAM), Asa Sul, Brasília 70070-934, Brazil.
5 Center for Natural and Human Sciences, Federal University of ABC (UFABC), São Bernardo do Campo 09210-580, Brazil.

Correspondence to: Dr. Hongjun Wang, Social Carbon Foundation, 195 Wood Street, London E17 3NU, UK. E-mail:
hongjun.wang@socialcarbon.org or hjwang78@gmail.com

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