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Table 1. Policy scenarios for methane emissions control from waste in China
Livestock and poultry
Scenario Municipal solid waste Urban sewage Agricultural cropping
farming
Business as usual (BAU) Current government measures maintained. 10% of the methane generated in the four waste sub-sectors is collected
and utilized
Urban waste recycling Methane recovery from Methane utilization from - -
policy (UWR) landfills reaches 60% by COD in sewage reaches
2025 and 80% by 2030 45% by 2025 and 50% by
2030
Agricultural carbon - - Straw fuel utilization Utilization of livestock and
reduction and exceeds 15% by 2025 and poultry waste exceeds 80%
sequestration (ACRS) 20% by 2030 by 2025 and 85% by 2030

Figure 2. Methane emissions from various waste sectors in China, 2018-2022.

emissions. Between 2018 and 2022, emissions from this subsector first declined and then increased, resulting
in a cumulative 3.8% rise. Its share of emissions consistently ranged from 17% to 25%. Methane emissions
from wastewater treatment reached 2.25 million tons in 2022, marking a 21.7% increase compared with
2018. Its share of total emissions rose steadily each year, from 13.1% in 2018 to 22.1% in 2022, underscoring
its growing importance in methane mitigation efforts.

Regional distribution characteristics of total methane emissions from waste
Figure 3 illustrates the regional distribution of methane emissions from waste in China. In 2022, emissions
were mainly concentrated in central and southern regions, particularly in provinces along the Yangtze and
Yellow River basins. In southern coastal regions, the large scale of livestock farming and high population
densities required extensive centralized waste disposal, rendering this area a major national hotspot for
methane emissions. The provinces with the highest methane emissions from waste in 2022 were Henan,
Shandong, Jiangsu, Hunan, and Guangdong. These provinces either serve as major grain producers (Henan,
Shandong, Hunan) or are both populous and economically significant (Guangdong, Jiangsu). Specifically,
Henan and Shandong emitted 1.09 and 0.75 million tons of methane from waste in 2022, accounting for
10.7% and 7.3% of national emissions, respectively.

Between 2018 and 2022, the regions with the highest emissions shifted from eastern and southern coastal
areas to central inland provinces. Coastal provinces generally experienced sharper emission declines than