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Hao et al. Carbon Footprints 2024;3:15 https://dx.doi.org/10.20517/cf.2024.24 Page 17 of 22

Expanded sensitivity analysis
Findings indicate that charging infrastructure improvements could significantly impact adoption rates, with
a 20% increase in charging station density, potentially leading to a 5%-10% increase in LDLV adoption.
Advancements in cold weather battery performance, such as a 15% increase in low-temperature range,
could result in a 7%-12% increase in market penetration. Grid reliability and renewable energy integration
also play crucial roles, with combined improvements potentially enhancing LDLV adoption by 3%-6%.
Regional economic growth above average could drive 8%-13% higher adoption rates, while stricter
emissions standards in urban areas could boost LDLV adoption by 10%-15%.

To address the impact of excluding minor factors such as administrative costs, a sensitivity analysis was
conducted. Administrative costs, estimated at 1%-3% of total vehicle ownership costs, were incorporated
into the model. Results showed that including these costs led to a marginal increase in the overall perceived
cost of ownership, ranging from 0.8% to 2.5%. This slight increase did not significantly alter the comparative
advantage of electric LDLVs over conventional vehicles in most scenarios. However, in cases where the cost
difference between electric and conventional LDLVs was already narrow, the inclusion of administrative
costs could delay the break-even point by 3-6 months.

In addition to the aforementioned factors, considering the economic and environmental impacts of battery
recycling is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of the total cost of ownership and environmental
footprint of electric LDLVs, especially given the shorter lifespan of commercial vehicles in this study
(5 years). Based on recent studies, we estimate that EV battery recycling value could offset about 20% of
initial battery costs, reducing total ownership costs by 2%-3% and potentially decreasing lifecycle carbon
[47]
emissions by 10%-15% . In the high-speed electrification scenario, economic benefits from recycling were
slightly lower (1.5%-2.5% cost reduction) due to lower initial battery costs, while in the low-speed scenario,
benefits were more pronounced (2.5%-3.5% reduction). These findings highlight the importance of
considering the full EV lifecycle, particularly in regions like Northern China, where EV adoption is rapidly
increasing.

Simulation results under combined scenarios
As shown in Figure 8, the combined scenarios for the development of electrified LDLVs project a
comprehensive benefit of 4.499 million yuan for the whole vehicle, a market share of 48.17% for electric
LDLVs, and an industry output value of 60.015 billion yuan by 2030 under the baseline electrification
scenario. This reflects a steady increase in market penetration and gradual expansion of the industry’s
output value due to current policies and technological conditions. The convergence of policy support and
market acceptance propels this trend, laying a foundation for sustainable industry growth. The low-speed
electrification scenario further estimates a comprehensive benefit increase to 5.749 million yuan, a market
share increase to 54.18%, and an industry output value of 68.465 billion yuan by 2030. In contrast, the high-
speed electrification scenario demonstrates even more pronounced growth, with comprehensive benefits
expected to reach 9.183 million yuan, a market share of 75.29%, and an industry output value leaping to
306.087 billion yuan. These projections highlight the catalytic role of technological advancements and policy
initiatives in accelerating electrification, particularly in enhancing range mileage and optimizing cost-
effectiveness.

The market and industry progression of electrified LDLVs is subject to a confluence of factors, including
technological innovation, policy support, market demands, and competitive industry strength. Key drivers
of electrification include advancements in range mileage, reductions in battery costs, development of
charging infrastructure, and supportive government policies. As environmental consciousness grows and
the need for sustainable transportation solutions intensifies, so does the market demand for electric vehicles.