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Page 18 of 22 Hao et al. Carbon Footprints 2024;3:15 https://dx.doi.org/10.20517/cf.2024.24

Figure 8. Simulation results of combined scenarios for LDLV electrification.

The expansion of industry output value signifies not only a broadening market scale but also an ascent in
the industry’s global competitiveness.

Comparative analysis of predicted market share
This study presents a comparative analysis of the predicted market share for new energy light trucks by
2030, featuring forecasts from a range of sources. Figure 9 offers a visual juxtaposition of these predictions,
including those from “Made in China 2025,” the “Automotive Industry Green Low-Carbon Development
Roadmap 1.0,” and Marianna Rottoli’s 2021 study, alongside the scenarios modeled in this paper: Baseline,
Low-Speed Electrification, and High-Speed Electrification. The estimates from this study project a market
share of 48.17% for the Baseline scenario, with the Low-Speed and High-Speed Electrification scenarios
forecasting increases to 54.18% and 75.29%, respectively. To assess the consensus and variance among these
forecasts, this paper calculates and presents the normalized average of the scenarios as a red dashed line in
Figure 9, indicating the general trend of the predictions. Together, these data points and the trend line
provide a comprehensive view of the industry’s potential, as forecasted by different models.

CONCLUSION AND POLICY IMPLICATION
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the electrification of LDLVs in Northern China, based on
the PCO model. Our findings reveal several key insights: (1) Economic viability: Despite higher initial
purchase and intangible costs, electrified LDLVs demonstrate significant economic advantages. The overall
cost benefit reaches 76,300 CNY, primarily driven by substantial energy cost savings; (2) Impact of
electricity pricing: Energy pricing emerges as a critical factor influencing future market dynamics.
Compared to the baseline electrification scenario, market share projections for 2030 increase by 30.71% and
46.19% in low and high-speed electrification scenarios, respectively, under varying electricity prices.
Notably, electricity pricing is identified as a key economic lever that could accelerate the transition to
electric vehicles; and (3) Promising future for LDLV electrification: Even in the face of an inevitable decline
in government financial and economic policy support, our projections indicate a positive trajectory for