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Page 14 of 22 Hao et al. Carbon Footprints 2024;3:15 https://dx.doi.org/10.20517/cf.2024.24

Table 9. Validity test results of comprehensive benefit model of logistics vehicle electrification
Time (Year) 2021 2022 2023
Permanent resident population (ten thousand people): estimated value 2,188.60 2,184.59 2,180.30
Permanent resident population (ten thousand people): actual value 2,188.60 2,184.30 2,180.00
Permanent resident population (ten thousand people): error value 0 0.0001 0.0001
New energy vehicle industry output value (billion yuan): estimated value 77.90 178.09 205.39
New energy vehicle industry output value (billion yuan): actual value 77.90 184.40 206.53
New energy vehicle industry output value (billion yuan): error value 0 -0.0342 -0.0055
Number of charging stations (units): estimated value 3,990 5,472 6,956
Number of charging stations (units): actual value 3,990 5,500.000 6,700
Number of charging stations (units): error value 0 -0.0050 0.0383

RESULTS
Sensitivity analysis under single scenarios
The core analysis of this study focuses on electricity prices, vehicle range, and policy subsidies as primary
factors influencing LDLV electrification in Northern China. An expanded sensitivity analysis was
conducted to address a broader range of variables relevant to Northern China’s unique context.

Sensitivity analysis of purchase subsidy variations
As shown in Figure 5, Uncertainty in the NEV sector, particularly surrounding purchase subsidy
adjustments, is scrutinized through the lens of this study. The pace of technological innovation, the
stringency of policy enforcement, and the unpredictability of market demands are pivotal factors that sway
the course of vehicle electrification. This analysis reveals a nuanced relationship between subsidy policies
and the projected growth of the NEV industry. The Baseline Scenario, with a gradual subsidy phase-out,
forecasts a steady 9.23% growth in comprehensive benefits by 2030. In stark contrast, the High-Speed
Electrification Scenario, with an ambitious reduction in subsidies, anticipates a more robust growth rate of
15.55%, suggesting an industry primed for swift technological adoption. Conversely, the Low-Speed
Electrification Scenario, devoid of subsidies, foresees a decline, illustrating the market’s reliance on policy
support. These insights, depicted in this comparative analysis, underscore the significance of balanced
policy mechanisms and the imperative for technological advancements to align with market responsiveness.
The study’s findings advocate for strategic policy formulation that considers the interplay of these
uncertainties, ensuring the NEV sector’s sustainable progression.

Uncertainty analysis of range mileage variation
As shown in Figure 6, this paper explores the uncertainty surrounding range mileage variations and their
impact on the NEV industry’s growth, set against a Baseline Scenario with an initial electric light-duty
logistics vehicle (LDLV) range of 323.54 km. The analysis juxtaposes a Low-Speed Electrification scenario,
with a 5% annual range increase, against a High-Speed scenario, with a 10% increase. The Low-Speed
scenario forecasts a measured growth in comprehensive benefits, reaching 4.89% by 2030, indicative of a
more tempered advancement in technology. Conversely, the High-Speed scenario, with its accelerated range
improvements, projects a markedly higher growth rate of 19.53%, signifying the potential for swift market
adoption of LDLVs. This delineated the NEV industry’s sensitivity to technological progress. The Baseline
Scenario serves as a reference, while the variance in range mileage underscores the critical role of innovation
in shaping market trajectory.