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Hao et al. Carbon Footprints 2024;3:15 https://dx.doi.org/10.20517/cf.2024.24 Page 15 of 22

Table 10. Model scenario settings
Scenario Purchase subsidy phase-out rate Range mileage (km) Electricity price (yuan/kW·h)
Baseline 10% per year 323.54 1.5
High-speed electrification 5% per year Annual increase of 10% 0.7 (expected future price)
Low-speed electrification No subsidy Annual increase of 5% 1.0 (expected future price)

Figure 5. Sensitivity analysis of purchase subsidy variations.

Uncertainty analysis of different electricity prices
As shown in Figure 7, this paper investigates the uncertainty associated with different electricity prices and
their impact on the NEV industry, particularly focusing on comprehensive benefits by 2030 in comparison
to the baseline scenario. It is worth noting that our current electricity price model uses the actual charging
costs at commercial charging stations, which include both the electricity price and service fees. The analysis
examines the effects of varying electricity prices on the industry’s growth, efficiency, and overall economic
viability. The study considers a range of electricity prices, with 0.7 yuan/kWh representing a scenario of low
electricity costs, indicative of potential economies of scale in renewable energy production and
advancements in grid infrastructure. This pricing strategy is projected to result in a substantial increase in
comprehensive benefits, with an impressive 299.5% growth by 2030, highlighting the significance of
affordable electricity in accelerating the adoption of electric LDLVs. Conversely, a higher electricity price
scenario of 0.7 to 1.0 yuan/kWh is also explored, reflecting potential market conditions where electricity
costs are less subsidized or where renewable energy production has not yet achieved the same economies of
scale. This scenario still anticipates an increase in comprehensive benefits, albeit at a moderated rate of
30.71%, suggesting that even moderate pricing can support growth in the NEV sector.