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Page 6 of 17 Stichnothe et al. Carbon Footprints 2026, 5, 11

Goal and scope
The goal of this CF study is firstly to evaluate the importance of LUC and secondly to show consequences of
modeling choices for by-product substitution. The functional unit is 1 ha of plantation area, using the
average performance for a plantation lifetime of 25 years.

A state-of-the-art production system as described above is investigated, and Monte Carlo simulations with
1,000 runs are used to show system-inherent variability of FFB production. For the Monte Carlo simulations,
triangle distribution of the two main parameters, yield and LUC, are used. The change in yield is associated
with an increase or decrease of linked parameters, e.g. yield decrease also leads to higher land demand per
product unit and higher fertilizer input and consequently higher GHG-emissions per product unit; the same
applies to the application of pesticides and diesel consumed. Therefore, input parameters linked to the yield
are not used for the Monte Carlo simulations. Waste management is discussed in detail [9,32] and more recently
also in and therefore not repeated here.
[30]

In 2020, approx. 21% of the cleared forest in Indonesia was used for oil palms, according to . The situation
[6]
concerning LUC is complex. To account for the complexity and regional variability across Indonesia, 20%
LUC was chosen as the upper level and 1% as the lower level.

Various LUC scenarios are investigated:

- Palm oil production without LUC (baseline), assuming an FFB yield of 20 t FFB ha .
-1

- 1%, 5%, 10%, and 20% LUC, equally converted from forest and peatland, i.e., 10% LUC = 5% from forest
and 5% from peatland. The equal conversion from forest and peatland is arbitrary; therefore, Monte Carlo
simulations are used to calculate the uncertainty. In addition, two scenarios for 10% LUC from forest and
10% from peatland are calculated separately.

- Annual GHG emission factors from direct land use change in tropical regions are taken from .
[44]

LUC is of paramount importance with respect to the climate-relevant performances of oil palm plantation;
therefore, 1 ha is used as a functional unit. Substitution is applied for by-products and surplus electricity.
Moreover, the uncertainty due to substitution, is investigated by applying an approach used by and in
[45]
addition, three options with and without LUC. Substitutes are identified based on function and existing
markets.

Identifying by-product substitutes
By-products are PKO and PKM. The relevant market for PKO is the oleochemical sector, and the C-chain
length, i.e., fatty acid composition, is the most relevant function. The situation for the PKM (or expeller) is
more complicated. PKM is a source of protein (14%) and energy (12 MJ kg dry matter) with a high fiber
-1
(16.5%) content. It can be used as ingredient in various animal feeds.

In beef cattle, PKM can constitute up to 80% of the diet, and for dairy cattle. The fiber content is acceptable
to most ruminants but is considered high for poultry. Biodegradation of PKM through solid-state
fermentation can improve its nutritional quality, improving broiler health status and growth performance .
[46]
Hence, in monogastric animals such as the African catfish or layer chickens, palm kernel meal can be used to
make up about 20% to 30% of the animal’s diet. More recent studies have shown that PKM can also replace
fishmeal in aquaculture .
[47]