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Original Article | Open Access

Carbon Footprints

Stichnothe et al. Carbon Footprints 2026, 5, 11 DOI:10.20517/cf.2025.90

Carbon footprint estimation of palm oil production
systems - impact of land use change and
consequences of modeling choices

Heinz Stichnothe # , Joerg Schweinle #

Keywords:
Peatland, by-product
substitution, animal feed,
smallholder, GHG,
deforestation
Citation: Stichnothe, H.;
Schweinle, J. Carbon
footprint estimation of palm
oil production systems -
impact of land use change
and consequences of
modeling choices. Carbon
Footprints 2026, 5, 11.
https://dx.doi.org/10.20517
/cf.2025.90

Received: 30 Sep 2025
First Decision: 29 Dec Abstract
2025
Revised: 12 Feb 2026 Anticipated growth in global palm oil demand is driving an expansion of Indonesian
Accepted: 12 Feb 2026 production, frequently necessitating land-use change (LUC). This study employs
Published: 11 Mar 2026
consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) integrated with Monte Carlo simulations to
estimate the carbon footprint (CF) due to LUC and investigate the sensitivity of these
Academic Editor:
Xiaogang Yin results to modeling choices. Understanding the CF of palm oil, particularly from LUC and
Copy Editor: through rigorous LCA modeling, is paramount for providing sound advice on greenhouse
Shu-Yuan Duan gas (GHG) mitigation. Converting peatland to oil palm plantations represents the most
Production Editor:
Shu-Yuan Duan detrimental scenario regarding climate impact. For example, a10% LUC from peatland
alone leads to 5.4 t CO 2eq ha a , i.e., 54 t ha peatland converted and 1,350 t CO 2eq ha over
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25 years. Furthermore, the modeling choice for by-product substitution significantly
influences CF results, potentially limiting the comparability of findings across different
studies. Our analysis demonstrates that the CF of crude palm oil (CPO) varies from 0.26E3
to 1.4E3 kg CO 2eq t without LUC and 0.85E3 to 1.9E3 kg CO 2eq t when LUC is included,
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depending on by-product modeling. Transparency in these modeling choices is paramount
for providing robust decision support to policymakers. Finally, a high-potential mitigation
strategy involves supporting the smallholder sector, which managed approximately 40% of
the 17 million hectares of oil palm plantations in 2021. Increasing smallholder yields from 11

Thuenen Institute of Forestry, Hamburg 21031, Germany.
# The author contributed equally to this work.
Correspondence to: Dr. Heinz Stichnothe, Thuenen Institute of Forestry, Hamburg 21031, Germany. E-mail: heinz.stichnothe@thuenen.de

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