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Tong et al. Carbon Footprints 2025;4:2 https://dx.doi.org/10.20517/cf.2024.44 Page 9 of 18

dismantling and recycling of automobiles and the development of remanufacturing, the recovery rate of
automotive plastics is expected to reach up to 80%, and based on the estimation that the closed-loop reuse
rate is roughly half of the recovery rate, the closed-loop reuse rate of automotive plastics is expected to reach
up to 40%.

In summary, this paper first assumes a recycling rate of 8% for the “Iron and Steel Smelting and Rolling
Processing Industry (corresponding to steel)” and 14% for the “Plastic Product Manufacturing Industry
(corresponding to plastic)” in the baseline scenario. In the closed-loop recycling of materials scenario, the
recycling rates are set at 85% for the “Iron and Steel Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry” and 40% for
the “Plastic Product Manufacturing Industry”. Subsequently, based on this, the input value of the “Iron and
Steel Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry” and “Plastic Product Manufacturing Industry” consumed
by the automobile manufacturing sector in the intermediate flow matrix of the baseline scenario is reduced.
Finally, using the improved R.A.S. method , a new intermediate flow matrix is generated and the direct
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input coefficient matrix is adjusted. Other parameters remain consistent with the low-carbon energy
transition scenario to analyze the further GHG emission reduction potential through materials recycling.

Scenario 3: sharing mobility transition scenario
The scenario of the sharing mobility transition reflects the impact of implementing the sharing mobility
business model on GHG emission reduction, through reduction in in-stock vehicles with smart
transportation.

Sharing mobility refers to the transportation model where people share vehicles with others through shared
rides or carpooling without needing to own the vehicle themselves, paying a corresponding usage fee based
on their travel needs. This includes a wide range of innovative models represented by ride-hailing and car-
sharing. Sharing mobility relies on providing better mobility services on demand rather than continuously
selling new cars. It primarily achieves emission reductions by substituting private car use, increasing vehicle
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utilization rates, and enhancing urban transportation efficiency .
A research report published in 2020 by the International Resource Panel (IRP) of the United Nations
Environment Programme (UNEP) points out that by 2050, sharing models, including car-sharing and ride-
sharing, have the potential to reduce car ownership in the G7 countries by 13% to 57% without altering
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consumers’ travel modes .
Based on this, in the sharing mobility transition scenario, the final demand is reduced by 13% for the lowest
potential, and 57% for the highest potential, to illustrate the impact of this factor on overall GHG emission
reduction in scenario 3. Other parameters remain consistent with the scenario of closed-loop material
recycling.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
In this section, we will first present the research findings of the input-output subsystem analysis. Building
upon these results, we will delve into the primary mechanisms across sectors in the socio-economic system
that influence the GHG emissions of automobile manufacturing. Lastly, through a comparison of various
simulation scenarios, we will elucidate the effects of various strategies of circular economy transition within
the socio-economic system on GHG emissions in the automotive manufacturing sector.