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Tong et al. Carbon Footprints 2025;4:2 https://dx.doi.org/10.20517/cf.2024.44 Page 7 of 18

For industrial categories, the study selects two specific subcategories within the automobile manufacturing
industry from the 153-sector table in the 2018 CEEIO data: Automobile Vehicle Manufacturing and Auto
Parts and Accessories Manufacturing. The remaining industrial categories are merged according to the
classifications in the 96-sector data table, resulting in a new 97-sector industry data table.

The research follows the “proportional import” assumption. Based on the proportion of imported products
in each sector’s total domestic use, imported products are separated from the intermediate input matrix and
the final use matrix of the competitive input-output table. This transformation converts the original
competitive input-output table into a non-competitive one, avoiding exaggerated calculation results when
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measuring domestic resource consumption and emissions .
Scenario analysis
Based on the decomposition results of the input-output subsystems, this paper sets a baseline scenario and
three emission reduction scenarios, i.e., the low-carbon transition of energy structure, closed-loop recycling
of materials, and sharing mobility transition. The specific parameter settings for each scenario are shown in
Table 1. The paper then simulates and estimates the GHG emission reduction potential under different
scenarios.

Baseline scenario
The Chinese government announced “The goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality” to achieve
carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 at the 75th United Nations General Assembly. Based
on this, the benchmark scenario in this study is set for the year 2030, with specific parameter settings as
follows:

1. Changes in energy structure: According to the “China Energy Statistical Yearbook (2021)” , in 2018,
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fossil fuels accounted for 85.5% of China’s total energy consumption, while non-fossil fuels accounted for
14.5%. On October 24, 2021, the State Council issued the “Action Plan for Carbon Peaking Before 2030”,
notifying that “by 2030, the share of non-fossil fuels in China’s energy consumption will reach around
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25%” . Based on this, this paper sets the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption in the
benchmark scenario at 25% and adjusts the emission intensity across various industrial sectors.

The direct input coefficients remain unchanged from the 2018 non-competitive input-output table for
domestic products.

2. Changes in final demand: The benchmark scenario sets parameters for changes in final demand from
three perspectives: changes in final consumption, changes in capital formation, and changes in exports.
Specifically: (1) Changes in final consumption: the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
predicts that China’s total vehicle sales will maintain an annual growth rate of 1.54% over the next five years
(2020-2025), 2% over the next ten years (2020-2030), and 2.18% over the next fifteen years (2020-2035) in
their “China Automobile Market Medium and Long-Term Forecast Report (2020-2035)” . Based on this,
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this paper sets the final consumption parameter in the benchmark scenario to grow steadily at a CAGR of
2% from 2018 onwards; and (2) Changes in capital formation and exports: Using the conversion coefficient
at constant prices from 2012, this paper set the annual growth rate of capital formation (5.89%) and exports
(5.60%) in the automobile manufacturing industry from 2012 to 2030.