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Page 8 of 22 Hao et al. Carbon Footprints 2024;3:15 https://dx.doi.org/10.20517/cf.2024.24

Table 4. Lifecycle carbon emission of light-duty urban logistics vehicles
Light-duty urban logistics 2022 2025 2030 2040 2050
Diesel 107,360.40 94,365.88 88,302.36 80,674.38 77,819.32
Natural gas 98,053.53 89,002.43 81,459.85 69,348.79 64,826.04
Pure electric 9,890.14 7,749.75 6,155.20 2,988.53 958.17

Total vehicle carbon emission cost
Table 5 presents a comprehensive analysis of the costs and profits associated with the electrification of
LDLVs. The total economic profit, which is the net result of all cost elements, indicates a saving of
76.300 yuan for each vehicle electrified, suggesting that electrification is economically advantageous. The
findings suggest that despite initial higher purchase costs, the long-term operational and maintenance
savings associated with electric vehicles, along with the environmental benefits of reduced carbon emissions,
make electrification a financially viable and environmentally friendly option for the logistics industry. The
slight negative total economic profit may indicate areas where costs could be further optimized or where
policy interventions, such as subsidies or incentives for electric vehicle adoption, could make electrification
even more attractive economically.

Electrification simulation: LDLV simulation model
Model parameter settings
This study takes Beijing as an example and selects urban economic, social, and natural climate conditions as
the boundary conditions for the system model baseline area. The year 2021 is set as the start of the
simulation, with a simulation period of 10 years and a step length of 1 year.

Macroeconomic elements mainly include regional GDP, GDP growth rate, new energy industry output
value, the proportion of new energy industry output value in GDP, new energy automobile output value, the
proportion of automobile output value in the industry output value, permanent resident population, natural
population growth rate, fixed asset investment in the transportation industry, motor vehicle stock, highway
operation freight volume, total retail sales of social consumer goods, etc. The macroeconomic data of Beijing
from 2018 to 2022 are shown in Table 6.

As shown in Table 7, through channels such as the China Society of Automotive Engineers and the China
Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, and in combination with big data crawlers and GIS vector map
verification, the supporting environmental information for electric logistics vehicles in the main urban area
of Beijing is organized.

Additionally, field research has shown that climate conditions have a significant impact on the range and
charging time of electric logistics vehicles. Under normal climate conditions (temperature above 10 °C),
electric logistics vehicles can usually operate at rated parameters; between -10 and 10 °C, the operation of
electric logistics vehicles will be affected to some extent, with the range of electric vehicles reduced by 50%
and the charging time at charging stations increased by 70%, referred to as special climate conditions in this
study; at temperatures below -10 °C, electric logistics vehicles cannot operate normally, and using them
forcibly carries great vehicle damage risks and safety hazards. Traditional logistics vehicles are usually used
to complete the set work, referred to as abnormal climate conditions in this study.