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Glinsky                                                                                                                                 Genetic signatures of lethal disease in early stage prostate cancer

           cancer patients of 65 years or younger [Figure 3]: in   percent of cancer cells in a sample varied dramatically
           Gleason 6 and 7 prostate cancer patients of age 65 or   from 2% to 90%. We therefore set out to determine
           younger, GES identifies 86% of all death events during   whether the number of cancer cells in biopsy samples
           the follow-up. In Gleason 6 and 7 prostate cancer   would  have  an  impact  on  classification  performance
           patients of age 70 or younger, GES identifies 90% of   of  the  98  genes  GES  of  lethal  prostate  cancer.  We
           all death events 6 years after diagnosis [Figure 3].  applied the 98 genes GES classifier to prostate cancer
                                                              patients which  were segregated into distinct sub-
           Proportion of cancer cells in biopsy samples is highly   groups based on the percent of cancer cells in a biopsy
           variable  and  these  variations  may  have  significant   sample. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrates
           impact on performance  of gene expression-based    that 98 genes GES performs successfully in patients’
           classifiers.  In  biopsy  samples  from  the  population-  stratification regardless of the number of cancer cells
           based Swedish Watchful Waiting cohort the reported   in biopsy samples  [Figures 4 and 5].  Remarkably





















































           Figure 4: GES-based identification of lethal disease in prostate cancer patients with distinct numbers of cancer cells in biopsy samples.
           Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of the classification performance of the 98 genes GES in 59 prostate cancer patients having 2% cancer
           cells in biopsy samples (A, top), 91 patients having 5% or less cancer cells in biopsy samples (A, bottom), 135 patients having 10% or
           less cancer cells in biopsy samples (B, top), 180 patients having 20% or less cancer cells in biopsy samples (B, bottom; and C, top), 220
           patients having 40% or less cancer cells in biopsy samples (C, bottom). Classification threshold 98 genes GES score of 270.43 units was
           chosen using the training set of 141 prostate cancer patients and consistently applied in all subsequent validation screens using the Kaplan-
           Meier survival analysis to stratify the patients into lethal disease sub-groups (score ≥ 270.43) and moderate/aggressive disease sub-group
           (score < 270.43). Percent values indicate the proportion of patients in the lethal disease sub-group. P values indicate the significance of
           the differences in the numbers of death events and surviving patients between the groups which was determined using two-sided Fisher’s
           exact test. GES: gene expression signatures
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