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Page 2 of 21 Özbek et al. Carbon Footprints 2025, 4, 30 https://dx.doi.org/10.20517/cf.2025.43

central and often contentious theme in economic discourse. Early perspectives, notably influenced by the
"Limits to Growth" report, highlighted the potential unsustainability of growth processes reliant on non-
[1-3]
renewable resources . This established a foundational tension, with mainstream economists frequently
[4-6]
noting the conflict between environmental protection and the energy demands of economic expansion ,
while others argued for the potential of technological development and substitution to mitigate negative
[7]
environmental impacts . The subsequent introduction of the sustainable development concept provided a
more nuanced framework for analyzing this complex relationship.

A seminal contribution within this framework was the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis,
first framed by Panayotou based on the foundational work of Grossman and Krueger . The EKC posits an
[8,9]
inverted U-shaped relationship, suggesting that environmental pollution initially increases with economic
growth due to the scale effect, but eventually declines as economies undergo structural transformations and
[9]
adopt cleaner technologies, driven by the structural and technological effects .
More recently, the theoretical landscape has been enriched by the introduction of the Renewable Energy
Kuznets Curve (RKC) hypothesis, proposed by Yao et al. as a complementary perspective. The RKC
[10]
describes a U-shaped relationship between per capita income and renewable energy consumption (REN).
According to this hypothesis, REN initially decreases as developing economies prioritize inexpensive fossil
fuels to power their growth. However, after reaching a certain income threshold - supported by strong
financing infrastructure and welfare gains [3,11] - rising environmental awareness and technological progress
lead to an increase in renewable energy adoption. A critical theoretical proposition is that the income level
corresponding to the RKC's turning point should be lower than that of the EKC's peak. This suggests that a
successful transition toward renewable energy is a prerequisite for achieving long-term environmental
[10]
improvement, causing the RKC to "turn" before the EKC .

Determining which of the turning points occurs first is not merely an academic exercise; it holds profound
significance for national policy design. This presents a crucial window of opportunity for policymakers to
implement targeted policies, such as renewable infrastructure investments and green incentives, to "flatten"
the EKC and accelerate the path to sustainability. This question is especially pertinent for a country such as
India, the world's third-largest polluter, which is simultaneously navigating the pressures of rapid economic
development.

Despite a vast body of literature on the validity of the EKC in the Indian context, studies investigating the
RKC hypothesis - and critically, its temporal relationship with the EKC - are non-existent. This study aims
to fill this significant gap in the literature by empirically investigating which turning point occurs first in the
Indian economy. To achieve this, we develop two distinct models to test the EKC and RKC hypotheses
using data from 1990 to 2022. By calculating and comparing the turning points of both curves through
contemporary and robust econometric methods, this research provides the first empirical evidence on this
matter for India. The findings are intended to offer novel and actionable insights for India's energy and
environmental policy, providing strategic guidance on prioritizing developmental goals while fostering a
sustainable future. The remainder of this study is organized as follows. In the Section "LITERATURE
REVIEW", the literature on EKC and RKC hypotheses is discussed in detail, and the relationships of other
variables used in the models are examined in depth. In the Section "DATA, MODEL CONSTRUCTION
AND METHODOLOGY", the data set and models used in the study are introduced and the empirical
methodology is given. In the Section "EMPIRICAL FINDINGS", the study findings are summarized. In the
Section "DISCUSSION", the results obtained from the study are evaluated. In the Sections "CONCLUSION"
and "DECLARATIONS", the findings are discussed and policy recommendations are presented.