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Page 2 of 22 Hao et al. Carbon Footprints 2024;3:15 https://dx.doi.org/10.20517/cf.2024.24

INTRODUCTION
Climate change has emerged as one of the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century, necessitating
[1]
urgent action across all sectors of the economy . As nations worldwide grapple with the imperative to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, China, the world’s largest carbon emitter, has set ambitious targets to
[2]
peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 . This commitment underscores the
critical role of sustainable development in urban areas, where the concentration of economic activities and
[3]
population growth intensifies environmental pressures .

Within the broader context of urban sustainability, the logistics sector stands out as a significant contributor
to carbon emissions and air pollution. In China, the rapid growth of e-commerce and urban delivery
services has led to a substantial increase in light-duty commercial vehicles, exacerbating air quality issues
and hindering decarbonization efforts . The logistics industry’s vehicle emissions not only contribute to
[4]
climate change but also pose immediate health risks to urban populations, making the transition to cleaner
transportation solutions an urgent priority .
[5]

Electrification of light-duty logistics vehicles (LDLVs) presents a promising pathway to address these
challenges. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell
vehicles offer the potential to significantly reduce both carbon footprints and operational costs in the
[6]
logistics sector . The adoption of these alternative energy vehicles aligns with global trends toward
sustainable urban mobility and has garnered support from policymakers and industry stakeholders alike .
[7]
However, the transition to electric light-duty commercial vehicles (ELCVs) faces substantial barriers that
impede widespread market integration. Range anxiety, stemming from limited battery capacity and
inadequate charging infrastructure, remains a primary concern for potential adopters . These challenges
[8]
are particularly pronounced in regions with extreme climatic conditions, such as Northern China, where
cold winters significantly impact vehicle performance and energy efficiency . In these areas, low
[9]
temperatures can reduce battery capacity by up to 40%, increase charging times, and necessitate more
frequent charging stops, thereby intensifying the inconvenience and operational challenges associated with
[10]
ELCVs .
Current research lacks a comprehensive assessment framework that incorporates both tangible and
intangible costs associated with electric vehicle adoption in diverse climatic conditions. This study fills this
gap by introducing a Perceived Cost of Ownership (PCO) model, a novel approach that evaluates the
economic viability of electric light-duty commercial vehicles in comparison to traditional counterparts. The
PCO model considers costs from the perspective of logistics companies and fleet managers, who are the
primary decision-makers in the adoption of ELCVs. The model’s innovation lies in its consideration of
spatial heterogeneity and the integration of intangible costs, offering unprecedented insights into the true
economic implications of electric vehicle adoption across varying geographic and climatic settings. By
examining the economic benefits through this PCO lens, the paper forecasts market penetration trends and
assesses the influence of regional economic, social, and environmental factors on the adoption of electric
vehicles by 2030. The findings are pivotal for deciphering the barriers to market penetration and for crafting
policies that foster sustainable urban logistics solutions. The findings from this research may inform future
studies on electric vehicle adoption in regions with similar challenging environments, potentially
contributing to a more nuanced understanding of electrification processes in diverse geographical contexts.