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Hao et al. Carbon Footprints 2024;3:15 Carbon Footprints
DOI: 10.20517/cf.2024.24

Original Article Open Access

Electrification pathways for light-duty logistics

vehicles based on perceived cost of ownership in
Northern China

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Xu Hao , Deyu Zhou , Ruiheng Zhong , Shunxi Li , Xianming Meng , Bo Liu 1
1
School of Mechanical Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China.
2
School of Economics and Management, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, China.
3
School of Automotive Engineering, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430070, Hubei, China.
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China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., Tianjin 300300, China.
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Authors contributed equally and should be considered co-first authors.
Correspondence to: Prof. Bo Liu, School of Mechanical Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, 30 Xueyuan
Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, China. E-mail: liubo1@ustb.edu.cn
How to cite this article: Hao X, Zhou D, Zhong R, Li S, Meng X, Liu B. Electrification pathways for light-duty logistics vehicles
based on perceived cost of ownership in Northern China. Carbon Footprints 2024;3:15. https://dx.doi.org/10.20517/cf.2024.24
Received: 5 Aug 2024 First Decision: 8 Oct 2024 Revised: 22 Oct 2024 Accepted: 25 Oct 2024 Published: 31 Oct 2024
Academic Editor: Feng Dong Copy Editor: Fangling Lan Production Editor: Fangling Lan
Abstract
Urban decarbonization and environmental mitigation necessitate the electrification of light-duty logistics vehicles
(LDLVs), including battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel cell variants. Although the market uptake of
electric LDLVs is ecologically imperative, it is impeded by range anxiety and charging infrastructure limitations,
particularly pronounced in Northern China’s cold climates. This paper employs a system dynamics model to assess
the Perceived Cost of Ownership of electric LDLVs, integrating both direct expenses - initial investment and energy
costs - and indirect factors like energy replenishment, vehicle substitution, and lifecycle carbon emissions. This
analysis reveals that, notwithstanding higher upfront costs, electric LDLVs offer substantial economic and
environmental advantages, with significant energy and maintenance savings projected by 2030 under various
electrification scenarios. This paper predicts that policy incentives, electricity pricing, and technological progress
will significantly influence the market dynamics and industry output of new energy vehicles in Northern China.
Notably, the findings indicate that by 2030, electric LDLVs could achieve substantial cost savings and
environmental benefits, with market penetration and industry output contingent on the interplay of policy support
and technological advancements. The baseline scenario forecasts a 48.17% market share and CNY 60.015 billion in
industry output, whereas the high-speed electrification scenario projects the most optimistic outcomes, with a
75.29% market share and CNY 306.087 billion in output.

Keywords: Electrification of logistics vehicles, economic analysis, sustainable urban logistics, Northern China,
climate impact, system dynamics model, perceived cost of ownership

© The Author(s) 2024. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, for any purpose, even commercially, as
long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and
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