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Original Article | Open Access

Carbon Footprints

Corsini et al. Carbon Footprints 2026, 5, 34 DOI:10.20517/cf.2026.08

Risk-adaptive conservation zones: integrating
degradation vulnerability into spatially explicit
carbon crediting

Christianne Corsini 1 , João Chaib 1,2 , Michael Davies , Danilo Centeno 3 , Raul Feldmann , Hongjun
1
1
Wang 1
Keywords:
Deforestation, edge effect,
exponential decay model,
fragmentation, nature-based
solutions, landscape
ecology, REDD+, spatial
modelling

Citation: Corsini, C.;
Chaib, J.; Davies, M.;
Centeno, D.; Feldmann, R.;
Wang, H. Risk-adaptive
conservation zones:
integrating degradation
vulnerability into spatially
explicit carbon crediting.
Carbon Footprints 2026, 5,
34.
https://dx.doi.org/10.20517 Abstract
/cf.2026.08
Fragmentation and edge exposure have caused major, spatially structured carbon losses in
Received: 19 Jan 2026 once-intact forests globally, yet most carbon methodologies, though central to
First Decision: 23 Mar conservation finance, still rely primarily on projected deforestation and fail to explicitly
2026
Revised: 6 Apr 2026 capture degradation-driven losses spatially. Here, we develop a Risk-Adaptive
Accepted: 22 May 2026 Conservation Zone (RACZ) model that integrates landscape ecology, spatial gradients of
Published: 30 Jun 2026 deforestation, and mechanistic edge-effect dynamics to delineate evidence-based carbon
crediting zones. Using the distance to the nearest deforestation as a proxy for spatial risk,
Academic Editor: and incorporating pressure intensity and landscape structure, the model generates a
Miguel Brandão
Copy Editor: dynamic, project-specific RACZ that adapts to both external pressure and internal
Fangling Lan resistance. Two tropical, similarly sized areas with contrasting deforestation pressures
Production Editor: were tested. The model yielded a small RACZ of 1,150 ha in the intact, low-pressure
Fangling Lan
landscape, concentrated in narrow bands near isolated edges, covering 0.27% of the total
area. While for the highly fragmented frontier, RACZ expanded to 337,985 ha, covering
99.4% of the total area and reflecting pervasive, far-reaching degradation risk. These

1 Social Carbon Ltd., London E17 3NU, UK.
2 Institute of Science and Technology, São Paulo State University (Unesp), Sorocaba, SP 18087-180, Brazil.
3 Center for Natural and Human Sciences, Federal University of ABC (UFABC), São Bernardo do Campo, SP 09606-045, Brazil.

Correspondence to: Dr. Hongjun Wang, Social Carbon Ltd., 195 Wood Street, London E17 3NU, UK. E-mail:
hongjun.wang@socialcarbon.org or hjwang78@gmail.com

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