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Shang et al. Carbon Footprints 2025, 4, 24 Carbon Footprints
DOI: 10.20517/cf.2025.28

Original Article Open Access

Methane emissions from China’s waste sector:

generation patterns, drivers, and mitigation potential

1
1,2
1
1
Haoran Shang , Fanxin Meng 1 , Jiaqi Hou , Zihan Song , Xu Zhang , Desheng Huang 2
1
State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing
100875, China.
2
Policy Research Center for Environment and Economy, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Beijing 100029, China.
Correspondence to: Prof. Fanxin Meng, State Key Laboratory of Regional Environment and Sustainability, School of Environment,
Beijing Normal University, No. 19, Xinjiekouwai Street, Haidian District, Beijing 100875, China. E-mail: fanxin.meng@bnu.edu.cn
How to cite this article: Shang, H.; Meng, F.; Hou, J.; Song, Z.; Zhang, X.; Huang, D. Methane emissions from China’s waste
sector: generation patterns, drivers, and mitigation potential. Carbon Footprints 2025, 4, 24. https://dx.doi.org/10.20517/cf.
2025.28

Received: 17 May 2025 First Decision: 16 Jul 2025 Revised: 6 Aug 2025 Accepted: 16 Sep 2025 Published: 22 Sep 2025
Academic Editors: Mengyao Han, Zhe Liu Copy Editor: Fangling Lan Production Editor: Fangling Lan

Abstract
Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with a 100-year global warming potential of 27.9 and has become a major
focus in global climate governance. As a major emitter, China faces substantial challenges in managing methane
emissions from its waste sector. This study examines the patterns of methane generation and the potential for
mitigation across different waste disposal systems in China. We established a comprehensive methane accounting
model and quantified emissions from four waste sectors: municipal solid waste, urban sewage, agricultural
cropping, and livestock and poultry farming. Using data from 2018 to 2022, we found that total methane emissions
from waste in China were 10.2 million tons in 2022, representing a 27.8% decline, mainly due to substantial
reductions in municipal solid waste emissions. In contrast, emissions from agricultural sources, particularly
livestock and poultry farming, have increased, underscoring the need for targeted mitigation strategies. To assess
future pathways, three policy scenarios were designed: Business as Usual (BAU), Urban Waste Recycling (UWR),
and Agricultural Carbon Reduction and Sequestration (ACRS). The projections for 2025-2030 indicate that the
ACRS scenario yields the greatest reduction in methane emissions, driven primarily by straw-to-fuel utilization and
improved livestock manure management. This study provides valuable insights into the sources, drivers, and future
trajectories of methane emissions from waste in China, and offers policy recommendations to maximize methane
mitigation benefits while minimizing greenhouse gas abatement costs.

Keywords: Methane emissions, waste disposal systems, mitigation potential, climate policy scenarios

© The Author(s) 2025. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0
International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, sharing,
adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, for any purpose, even commercially, as
long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and
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