Page 126 - Read Online

Page 6 of 11 Paranaguá-Vezozzo et al. Hepatoma Res 2018;4:11 I http://dx.doi.org/10.20517/2394-5079.2018.17

Table 2. Odds ratio of risk factors for HCC presence on a multivariate logistic regression analysis
Group OR (95% CI) P value
Gender Male 1 (0.41-2.46) 1
Age (years) > 60 1.07 (0.44-2.6) 0.88
AFP (ng/mL) > 20 16.2 (4.17-63.01) < 0.001
Bil (mg/dL) > 1.0 1.58 (0.61-4.12) 0.349
AST (U/L) > 41 3.53 (0.95-13.13) 0.06
ALT (U/L) > 37 7.43 (1.61-34.19) 0.01
GGT (U/L) > 61 2.65 (0.61-11.43) 0.192
AP (U/L) > 129 - 0.995
INR > 1.20 0.87 (0.36-2.12) 0.761
3
Platelet count (/mm ) < 100,000 3.62 (1.43-9.14) 0.007
Transferin saturation > 40% 0.97 (0.34-2.73) 0.954
Ferritin (ng/mL) > 150 1.8 (0.3-10.91) 0.522
Albumin (g/dL) < 3.4 1.46 (0.58-3.67) 0.425
Glucose (mg/dL) > 110 0.58 (0.2-1.65) 0.304
Fibrinogen (ng/mL) < 150 1.46 (0.58-3.67) 0.425
Screening Yes 0.06 (0.02-0.24) < 0.001
Ascites Yes 1.94 (0.81-4.66) 0.138
SBP Yes 2.03 (0.12-33.67) 0.62
Variceal bleeding Yes 1.16 (0.31-4.32) 0.821
Esophageal varices Yes 0.87 (0.35-2.15) 0.756
Encephalopathy Yes 1.16 (0.31-4.32) 0.821
Abdominal pain Yes - 0.992
Weight loss Yes 0.24 (0.03-2.17) 0.204
Child B 1.83 (0.72-4.62) 0.203
C 5.18 (0.44-60.93) 0.191
Alcohol consumption Yes 1 (0.37-2.68) 1
Alpha-Interferon therapy Yes 0.75 (0.31-1.85) 0.538
Treatment response No 1.02 (0.3-3.45) 0.98
Yes - 0.993

HCV: hepatitis C virus; AFP: alpha feto protein; HCC: hepatocellular carcinoma; Bil: total bilirubin; AST: aspartate aminotransferase; ALT:
alanine aminotransferase; GGT: gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase; AP: alkaline phosphatase; INR: international normalized ratio; SBP:
spontaneous bacterial peritonitis; OD: odds ratio

Table 3. Discrimination measurements for development of the model score with different prevalent risk HCC
scenario (3% and 10%) and results of its internal validation

Estimate (95% CI) Optimism
General cut off: 54
Se 81% (64%-94%) -13.1%
Sp 60% (47%-71%) 6.4%
Prevalence scenario 3% 10%
PPV 5.8% 18%
NPV 98.5% 95%
Excluding cut off: 26
Se 100 % (89%-100%) -7.5%
Sp 23% (14%-34%) 13%
Prevalence scenario 3% 10%
PPV 3.7% 12.2%
NPV 99.1% 96.9%
Including cut off: 100
Se 26% (14%-43%) -2.6%
Sp 100% (94%-100%) 0
Prevalence scenario 3% 10%
PPV 44.6% 74.2%
NPV 97.7% 92.3%
HCC: hepatocellular carcinoma); NPV: negative predictive value; PPV: positive predictive value; Se: sensitivity; Sp: specificity