﻿<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">Energy Mater.</journal-id>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">ENERGYMATER</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Energy Materials</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">2770-5900</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>OAE Publishing Inc.</publisher-name>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.20517/energymater.2026.216</article-id>
      <article-categories>
        <subj-group>
          <subject>Article</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Machine learning-driven optimization of plasma-coupled photocatalytic CO<sub>2</sub> reduction system for syngas production</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Bi</surname>
            <given-names>Runze</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I1">
            <sup>1</sup>
          </xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I2">
            <sup>2</sup>
          </xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I#">
            <sup>#</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Gao</surname>
            <given-names>Tingting</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I3">
            <sup>3</sup>
          </xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I#">
            <sup>#</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Wang</surname>
            <given-names>Yanan</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I1">
            <sup>1</sup>
          </xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I4">
            <sup>4</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Wang</surname>
            <given-names>Dong</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I5">
            <sup>5</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Zhu</surname>
            <given-names>Huiwen</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I6">
            <sup>6</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Xi</surname>
            <given-names>Ziyun</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I1">
            <sup>1</sup>
          </xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I2">
            <sup>2</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Qin</surname>
            <given-names>Hongling</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I1">
            <sup>1</sup>
          </xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I2">
            <sup>2</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Wang</surname>
            <given-names>Huanyi</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I7">
            <sup>7</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Geng</surname>
            <given-names>Ziqi</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I2">
            <sup>2</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Yao</surname>
            <given-names>Yijie</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I2">
            <sup>2</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Guan</surname>
            <given-names>Yiyong</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I2">
            <sup>2</sup>
          </xref>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes">
          <name>
            <surname>Zhang</surname>
            <given-names>Honglei</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I1">
            <sup>1</sup>
          </xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I2">
            <sup>2</sup>
          </xref>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="I*">
            <sup>*</sup>
          </xref>
          <xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1" />
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <aff id="I1">
        <sup>1</sup>Nottingham Ningbo China Beacons of Excellence Research and Innovation Institute, Ningbo 315100, Zhejiang, China.</aff>
      <aff id="I2">
        <sup>2</sup>Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, The University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, Zhejiang, China.</aff>
      <aff id="I3">
        <sup>3</sup>Beilun Branch of Ningbo Municipal Bureau of Ecology and Environment, Ningbo 315800, Zhejiang, China.</aff>
      <aff id="I4">
        <sup>4</sup>Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, The University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, Zhejiang, China.</aff>
      <aff id="I5">
        <sup>5</sup>Beijing Perfectlight Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing 100080, China.</aff>
      <aff id="I6">
        <sup>6</sup>College of Digital Technology and Engineering, Ningbo University of Finance &amp; Economics, Ningbo 315175, Zhejiang, China.</aff>
      <aff id="I7">
        <sup>7</sup>School of Materials Science and Chemical Engineering, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China</aff>
      <aff id="I#">
        <sup>#</sup>These authors contributed equally to this work.</aff>
      <author-notes>
        <corresp id="cor1"><sup>*</sup>Correspondence to: Prof. Honglei Zhang, Nottingham Ningbo China Beacons of Excellence Research and Innovation Institute, Ningbo 315100, Zhejiang, China; Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, The University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo 315100, Zhejiang, China. E-mail: <email>honglei-zhang@nottingham.edu.cn</email></corresp>
        <fn fn-type="other">
          <p>
            <bold>Received:</bold> 9 Jul 2026 |  <bold>First Decision:</bold> 30 Jul 2026 |  <bold>Revised:</bold> 27 Aug 2026 |  <bold>Accepted:</bold> 17 Sep 2026 |  <bold>Published:</bold> 20 Sep 2026</p>
        </fn>
        <fn fn-type="other">
          <p>
            <bold>Academic Editor:</bold> Ho Won Jang | <bold>Copy Editor:</bold> Ping Zhang | <bold>Production Editor:</bold> Ping Zhang</p>
        </fn>
      </author-notes>
	  <pub-date pub-type="ppub">
        <year>2026</year>
      </pub-date>
      <pub-date pub-type="epub">
        <day>20</day>
        <month>9</month>
        <year>2026</year>
      </pub-date>
      <volume>6</volume>
	  <issue>9</issue>
      <elocation-id>600121</elocation-id>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>© The Author(s) 2026.</copyright-statement>
        <license xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
          <license-p>© The Author(s) 2026. <bold>Open Access</bold> This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (<uri xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</uri>), which permits unrestricted use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, for any purpose, even commercially, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.</license-p>
        </license>
      </permissions>
      <abstract>
        <p>Dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma-coupled photocatalysis offers a promising route for CO<sub>2</sub>-to-syngas conversion, but rational optimization remains challenging because operating variables are strongly coupled. Here, we develop a small-sample machine-learning framework to predict and optimize a plasma-coupled photocatalytic CO<sub>2</sub> conversion system using a Cu-Pd/TiO<sub>2</sub> photocatalyst. Using 120 experimental runs, five operating parameters, including discharge power, catalyst dosage, gas flow rate, relative humidity, and light intensity, were evaluated against CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO yield, and H<sub>2</sub> yield. Among the evaluated models, a shared-weight Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR)-Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) hybrid model achieved the great predictive performance, with test-set R<sup>2</sup> values of 0.947, 0.950, and 0.954 for CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO yield, and H<sub>2</sub> yield, respectively. Permutation importance and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analyses identified relative humidity, light intensity, and discharge power as the most influential variables and revealed distinct model-predicted trends across the three outputs. The trained model was further used for constrained optimization under target H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratios of 1 and 2, followed by experimental validation of the selected operating conditions. Overall, this work establishes a data-driven strategy for interpreting nonlinear plasma-photocatalytic CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and provides practical guidance for syngas-ratio regulation under experimentally relevant conditions.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <kwd>Plasma-photocatalysis</kwd>
        <kwd>CO<sub>2 </sub>conversion</kwd>
        <kwd>syngas</kwd>
        <kwd>machine learning</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
  <body>
    <sec id="sec1">
      <title>INTRODUCTION</title>
      <p>Rising CO<sub>2</sub> emissions have intensified concerns about global warming and environmental sustainability in recent years<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B1">1</xref>]</sup>. Efficient CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and utilization are therefore essential for closing the carbon cycle and developing a low-carbon energy system<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B2">2</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B3">3</xref>]</sup>. The conversion of CO<sub>2</sub> into value-added fuels and chemicals not only mitigates CO<sub>2</sub> emissions but also provides alternative resources for the chemical and energy industries<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B4">4</xref>-<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B7">7</xref>]</sup>. Among the possible products, syngas, a mixture of CO and H<sub>2</sub>, is particularly attractive because it serves as an important intermediate for Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, methanol production, and other downstream chemical processes<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B8">8</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B9">9</xref>]</sup>. The H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio is also a key determinant of its suitability for different applications. Therefore, the efficient conversion of CO<sub>2</sub> and H<sub>2</sub>O into syngas requires not only high reaction efficiency, but also effective control over product composition. However, conventional syngas-production routes, such as coal gasification and methane reforming, generally require harsh reaction conditions and are associated with substantial energy consumption and carbon emissions<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B10">10</xref>]</sup>. Developing mild, tunable, and low-carbon routes for CO<sub>2</sub>-to-syngas conversion is therefore highly desirable<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B11">11</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B12">12</xref>]</sup>.</p>
      <p>Photocatalytic CO<sub>2</sub> reduction provides a promising route for solar-driven carbon utilization, but its practical performance is limited by the difficult activation of CO<sub>2</sub>, rapid recombination of photogenerated charge carriers, and insufficient control over product selectivity<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B6">6</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B13">13</xref>-<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B15">15</xref>]</sup>. To overcome these limitations, previous studies have demonstrated the potential of combining plasma with photocatalysts. Non-thermal plasma (NTP) generates energetic electrons, excited molecules, radicals, and other reactive species under relatively mild conditions, thereby providing an effective pathway for activating thermodynamically stable CO<sub>2</sub> molecules<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B16">16</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B17">17</xref>]</sup>. It can therefore be coupled with photocatalytic systems to enhance reaction efficiency<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B18">18</xref>]</sup>. For example, Huang <italic>et al.</italic> coupled a Cs<sub>2</sub>SnCl<sub>6</sub> photocatalyst with a dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) plasma system and obtained a CO production rate of 294.47 μmol min<sup>-1</sup>, which was approximately 6.5% higher than the sum of those achieved by plasma alone (276.38 μmol min<sup>-1</sup>) and photocatalysis alone (0.0013 μmol min<sup>-1</sup>). The introduction of H<sub>2</sub>O further increased the CO<sub>2</sub> conversion by 50.6%, which was attributed to enhanced charge transfer resulting from the increased electrical conductivity of the photocatalyst surface during plasma discharge<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B19">19</xref>]</sup>. More recently, Feng <italic>et al.</italic> coupled a CsPbBr<sub>3</sub>@ReS<sub>2</sub> heterojunction photocatalyst with a DBD plasma reactor and achieved a CO<sub>2</sub> conversion of 35.60% and an energy efficiency of 13.10%. They attributed the enhanced performance to improved optical absorption and interfacial charge migration, together with prolonged microdischarge duration and improved discharge uniformity<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">20</xref>]</sup>. These studies establish the feasibility of combining semiconductor photocatalysts with plasma. Nevertheless, these studies mainly focused on overall CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO production, or energy efficiency, while the simultaneous formation and systematic regulation of CO and H<sub>2</sub> from CO<sub>2</sub> and H<sub>2</sub>O remain less explored.</p>
      <p>A fully coupled plasma-photocatalytic system integrates plasma activation, external light irradiation, and photocatalytic surface reactions within the same reaction environment. This configuration may enable more flexible control of syngas formation, but it also introduces strong interactions among the operating variables. Discharge power, catalyst dosage, gas flow rate, relative humidity and light intensity may produce nonlinear and output-dependent effects on CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO formation and H<sub>2</sub> evolution<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B21">21</xref>-<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">23</xref>]</sup>. Conditions that favor CO<sub>2</sub> conversion or CO production may therefore not yield the desired H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio, making conventional one-factor-at-a-time optimization inadequate for this multivariable and multi-objective system. Therefore, machine learning provides a possible approach for describing such nonlinear relationships and identifying operating conditions within complex reaction spaces<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B24">24</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B25">25</xref>]</sup>. For instance, Shen <italic>et al.</italic> developed a Genetic Algorithm-Backpropagation Artificial Neural Network (GA-BPANN) model to predict CO<sub>2</sub> conversion in a DBD plasma system coupled with a Cs<sub>2</sub>TeCl<sub>6</sub> photocatalyst, achieving R<sup>2</sup> values above 0.96 on both training and test sets and enabling quantitative analysis of process parameter effects<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B23">23</xref>]</sup>. Recently, Luo <italic>et al.</italic> applied machine learning to a DBD plasma system assisted by photocatalysts in CO<sub>2</sub> conversion using different halide-perovskite photocatalysts<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B26">26</xref>]</sup>. Process variables and catalyst material descriptors were used to establish separate predictive models for CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and energy efficiency. These studies demonstrate the value of machine learning for performance prediction and process optimization. Nevertheless, existing applications have generally focused on a single reaction metric or on separate performance targets. They have rarely addressed the simultaneous prediction of CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO yield, H<sub>2</sub> yield and H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio within a fully coupled plasma-photocatalytic CO<sub>2</sub>/H<sub>2</sub>O system. Moreover, optimization under a prescribed H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio followed by experimental validation remains insufficiently developed. Three specific knowledge gaps therefore motivate the present study. First, fully coupled plasma-photocatalytic systems for controllable syngas production from CO<sub>2</sub> and H<sub>2</sub>O have not yet been systematically investigated. Second, the nonlinear and potentially competing effects of multiple operating parameters on CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO formation, H<sub>2</sub> evolution, and the resulting H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio remain unclear. Third, a data-efficient and interpretable machine-learning framework for multi-output prediction and H<sub>2</sub>/CO-ratio-constrained optimization, followed by experimental validation, has not been established for this type of system.</p>
      <p>Herein, to address these knowledge gaps, we developed a DBD plasma-coupled photocatalytic CO<sub>2</sub> reduction (P<sup>2</sup>CR) system using Cu-Pd/TiO<sub>2</sub> as a representative photocatalyst. The P<sup>2</sup>CR system integrates plasma activation, light irradiation, and photocatalytic surface reactions within the same reaction environment for the simultaneous conversion of CO<sub>2</sub> and H<sub>2</sub>O into syngas. A dataset comprising 120 experimental runs was constructed using discharge power, catalyst dosage, gas flow rate, relative humidity, and light intensity as input variables, while CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO yield, and H<sub>2</sub> yield were selected as output targets. After comparing multiple machine-learning algorithms, a shared-weight hybrid model based on Kernel Ridge Regression and Gradient Boosting Regressor was developed to capture the nonlinear relationships between the operating parameters and reaction outputs. Permutation importance and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analyses were further employed to identify the dominant variables and interpret their effects on CO<sub>2</sub> reduction, CO formation, and H<sub>2</sub> evolution. Finally, the trained model was used to screen operating conditions under prescribed H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratios of 1 and 2, and the model-recommended conditions were experimentally validated. This work establishes a data-driven strategy for understanding and optimizing nonlinear plasma-photocatalytic CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and provides practical guidance for controllable syngas production.</p>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec2">
      <title>EXPERIMENTAL</title>
      <sec id="sec2-1">
        <title>Experimental equipment, processes and photocatalyst preparation</title>
        <p>Detailed information on the experimental equipment, experimental procedures and photocatalyst preparation is provided in the <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Materials</inline-supplementary-material>.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec2-2">
        <title>The procedures of the machine learning</title>
        <p>The P<sup>2</sup>CR system, as illustrated in <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Figure 1</inline-supplementary-material>, is influenced by many factors, including discharge power, catalyst dosage, gas flow rate, humidity, and light intensity. These five variables were selected because they were experimentally varied in all 120 runs and represent the main operation-level descriptors of the present plasma-coupled photocatalytic reactor. Discharge power controls the plasma energy input, catalyst dosage determines the amount of available catalytic surface, gas flow rate affects reactant throughput and residence time, relative humidity regulates water participation and the plasma reaction atmosphere, and light intensity governs photocatalyst excitation. These variables were therefore selected as the most relevant operating parameters for model construction and optimization within the present fixed catalyst-reactor system. Other potentially influential factors, including catalyst composition, reactor geometry, electrode gap, plasma frequency, and the CO<sub>2</sub>/Ar feed ratio, were kept constant in the present study and were not included as input variables. This design was adopted because the objective was to optimize the operating conditions of a fixed Cu-Pd/TiO<sub>2</sub> plasma-coupled photocatalytic system rather than to compare different catalysts or reactor configurations. In addition, the dataset contained 120 experimental runs. Introducing additional material-level and reactor-level variables would have increased the dimensionality of the problem and reduced the interpretability and statistical robustness of the small-sample machine-learning analysis.</p>
        <p>
          <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig1">Figure 1</xref> illustrates the workflow of model construction, training, optimization, and evaluation in this study. The machine-learning workflow was designed to avoid information leakage during model development. The dataset consisted of 120 experimental samples and was divided by the Sample set Partitioning based on joint X-Y distances (SPXY) algorithm into a training set (<italic>n</italic> = 96) and an external test set (<italic>n</italic> = 24). The training set was used for model development and parameter optimization, whereas the external test set was used for final performance evaluation and subsequent permutation feature importance (PFI) analysis. Five experimentally measured operating variables, namely discharge power, catalyst dosage, gas flow rate, relative humidity, and light intensity, were used as the primary input features. To capture nonlinear interactions, nine engineered features were additionally constructed: power/flow, dosage/flow, light intensity/flow, humidity × light intensity, power × light intensity, humidity × flow, 1/flow, power/dosage, and dosage × light intensity. The hybrid model used five experimentally controllable variables together with nine engineered descriptors for nonlinear feature representation. For the Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) model, the input features were standardized using StandardScaler within the modeling pipeline. The tree-based Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR) model was fitted directly to the raw and engineered input features without feature standardization. No target transformation or target normalization was applied during model fitting; all predictions and evaluation metrics were calculated in the original physical units. During SPXY splitting, the input and output variables were temporarily standardized only for calculating distances in the combined X-Y space. This temporary scaling was not used to transform the model targets. In addition, mean squared error (MSE) was used during hybrid-weight selection. Five repeated five-fold cross-validation was used to screen the candidate base learners. Hyperparameter optimization was performed using four-fold inner cross-validation within the training set only. The optimized GBR parameters were n<sub>estimators</sub> = 280, learning rate = 0.06, max depth = 2, subsample = 0.85, and min samples leaf = 1. The optimized KRR parameters were alpha = 0.06 and gamma = 0.10 with an Radial Basis Function (RBF) kernel. After fixing the base-model hyperparameters, the shared hybrid weight was optimized using three-fold out-of-fold predictions generated only from the training set. The weight-search step size was 0.01. The random seeds were fixed at 42 for hyperparameter cross-validation and 2026 for the inner out-of-fold hybrid-weight optimization and GBR training. The repeated cross-validation seeds were also fixed in advance. All analyses were performed in Python 3.11.15 using NumPy 2.4.6, pandas 3.0.5, SciPy 1.17.1, scikit-learn 1.9.0, and joblib 1.5.3.</p>
        <fig id="fig1" position="float" width="500">
          <label>Figure 1</label>
          <caption>
            <p>Process scheme of the optimization, evaluation and prediction framework for the hybrid machine-learning model. RMSE: Root mean square error; MAE: mean absolute error; MSE: mean squared error; SPXY: sample set partitioning based on joint X-Y distances; GBR: gradient boosting regressor; KRR: kernel ridge regression.</p>
          </caption>
          <graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="em60216.fig.1.jpg" />
        </fig>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec2-3">
        <title>Description of the hybrid model</title>
        <p>A single machine learning model may be sensitive to local data structures, noise, or train-test splitting<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B27">27</xref>-<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B29">29</xref>]</sup>. To address these challenges, we developed a hybrid model with shared weights by combining GBR and KRR. GBR is a tree-based ensemble method capable of capturing nonlinear relationships, local threshold effects, and interactions between variables<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B30">30</xref>]</sup>. In contrast, KRR performs smooth kernel-based regression and is suitable for modeling continuous nonlinear responses in small-sample datasets<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B31">31</xref>]</sup>. These two models have different learning mechanisms: GBR focuses on local nonlinear partitioning of the feature space, whereas KRR describes global smooth nonlinear trends based on kernel similarity. Their complementary characteristics motivated the construction of the hybrid model. The hybrid prediction was defined as:</p>
        <p><disp-formula> <label>(1)</label> <tex-math id="E1"> $$ P_{ {hybrid }}=W * P_{G B R}+(1-W) * P_{K R R}~(0 \leq W \leq 1)  $$ </tex-math></disp-formula></p>
		<p>where <italic>P<sub>GBR</sub></italic> and <italic>P<sub>KRR</sub></italic> are the predictions of GBR and KRR, respectively, and <italic>W</italic> represents the weight assigned to GBR. Within the SPXY training set, cross-validation was used to generate out-of-fold predictions from GBR and KRR<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B32">32</xref>]</sup>. The hybrid weight <italic>W</italic> was then searched from 0 to 1 with a step size of 0.01. For each candidate weight, the hybrid prediction was calculated and evaluated by the mean squared error<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B33">33</xref>]</sup>:</p>
        <p><disp-formula> <label>(2)</label> <tex-math id="E2"> $$ M S E=\frac{1}{n}  \sum_{j=1}^{n}\left(y_{j}^{ {pred }}-y_{j}^{ {true }}\right)^{2} $$ </tex-math></disp-formula></p>
        <p>where <inline-formula><tex-math id="M1">$$  y_{j}^{pred} $$</tex-math></inline-formula> is the predicted value of the model; <inline-formula><tex-math id="M2">$$  y_{j}^{true} $$</tex-math></inline-formula> is the true value.</p>
        <p>After weight optimization, the optimal weights for the two models were determined to be 0.64 for GBR and 0.36 for KRR. The final hybrid model is therefore expressed as:</p>
        <p><disp-formula> <label>(3)</label> <tex-math id="E3"> $$ P_{hybrid}= 0.64*P_{GBR}+0.36*P_{KRR} $$ </tex-math></disp-formula></p>
        <p>In this study, the performance of various base machine learning models in predicting the catalytic reaction properties was evaluated. R<sup>2</sup> was used as the evaluation metric to measure the performance of each model and to make comparisons. Performance was also evaluated by mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE), as determined using<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B33">33</xref>]</sup>:</p>
        <p><disp-formula> <label>(4)</label> <tex-math id="E4"> $$ R^{2}=1-\frac{ \textstyle \sum_{j=1}^{n}\left(y_{j}^{ {pred }}-y_{j}^{ {true }}\right)^{2}}{\textstyle \sum_{j=1}^{n}\left(y_{j}^{{true }}-\bar{y}^{ {true }}\right)^{2}} $$ </tex-math></disp-formula></p>
        <p><disp-formula> <label>(5)</label> <tex-math id="E5"> $$ M A E=\frac{1}{n}  \sum_{j=1}^{n}\left|y_{j}^{ {pred }}-y_{j}^{ {true }}\right| $$ </tex-math></disp-formula></p>
        <p><disp-formula> <label>(6)</label> <tex-math id="E6"> $$ R M S E=\sqrt{\frac{1}{n} \sum_{j=1}^{n}\left(y_{j}^{ {pred }}-y_{j}^{ {true }}\right)^{2}} $$ </tex-math></disp-formula></p>
        <p>where <inline-formula><tex-math id="M3">$$  y_{j}^{pred} $$</tex-math></inline-formula> is the predicted value of the model; <inline-formula><tex-math id="M4">$$  y_{j}^{true} $$</tex-math></inline-formula> is the true value; <inline-formula><tex-math id="M5">$$  \bar{y}^{true} $$</tex-math></inline-formula> is the mean true value.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec2-4">
        <title>Importance analysis and SHAP analysis</title>
        <p>To evaluate how each experimental parameter influenced the hybrid model’s predictions, permutation feature importance was applied. We chose PFI because it is model-agnostic and does not depend on the internal workings of a specific algorithm, which makes it particularly suitable for the GBR-KRR hybrid model<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B34">34</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B35">35</xref>]</sup>. In addition, PFI measures the change in model performance when a given feature is perturbed, providing a straightforward way to assess how sensitive the model is to each input variable. In this analysis, the trained model was first used to predict the external test set, and the original coefficient of determination, <inline-formula><tex-math id="M6">$$  R_{original}^{2} $$</tex-math></inline-formula>, was recorded. Each input variable was then randomly permuted in turn while all other variables were kept unchanged. The model was used to make predictions on the permuted data, and the corresponding coefficient of determination, <inline-formula><tex-math id="M7">$$  R_{permuted}^{2} $$</tex-math></inline-formula>, was calculated. The importance of each feature was expressed as the decrease in <italic>R</italic><sup>2</sup>:</p>
        <p><disp-formula> <label>(7)</label> <tex-math id="E7"> $$ R_{ {drop }}^{2}=R_{ {original }}^{2}-R_{ {permuted }}^{2} $$ </tex-math></disp-formula></p>
        <p>A larger <inline-formula><tex-math id="M8">$$  R_{drop}^{2} $$</tex-math></inline-formula> indicates that permuting the corresponding feature causes a greater loss of model performance, suggesting that the model is more sensitive to that variable<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B34">34</xref>-<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B36">36</xref>]</sup>. In this study, <inline-formula><tex-math id="M9">$$  R_{drop}^{2} $$</tex-math></inline-formula> was calculated separately for CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO yield, and H<sub>2</sub> yield to compare the relative effects of 5 input parameters on each output. It is important to emphasize that PFI reflects the dependence of the trained model on each input variable, rather than establishing a direct causal relationship<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B37">37</xref>]</sup>. The results were therefore used to identify key operating parameters and to guide subsequent response-trend analysis and condition optimization.</p>
        <p>SHAP analysis was further performed to gain a deeper understanding of feature contributions. Unlike PFI, which evaluates the overall importance of a variable, SHAP provides a sample-level decomposition of the prediction into contributions from individual features<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B38">38</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B39">39</xref>]</sup>. For a given output, a positive SHAP value indicates that the feature increases the predicted value relative to the baseline prediction, whereas a negative SHAP value indicates that it decreases the prediction. A larger absolute SHAP value corresponds to a stronger contribution to that specific prediction<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B38">38</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B39">39</xref>]</sup>. For the hybrid model developed in this study, SHAP analysis was used to interpret the prediction behavior of the weighted GBR-KRR model across the experimental domain. By comparing the SHAP distributions of different features for CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO yield, and H<sub>2</sub> yield, the analysis helped determine whether key variables had different effects on CO<sub>2</sub> reduction and H<sub>2</sub> formation. This provided additional insights into the nonlinear responses and multi-objective competition in the P<sup>2</sup>CR system. For interpretability, PFI and SHAP were performed on the five original variables, while the nine engineered descriptors were used only internally in model construction. It is important to emphasize that permutation feature importance and SHAP quantify predictive associations within the experimental domain. These analyses were used to rank the input variables and interpret the behavior of the trained model. Mechanistic explanations based on these results are presented as plausible hypotheses guided by reactor physics and previous literature.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec2-5">
        <title>The details of the robustness-oriented strategy</title>
        <p>To further assess the extrapolation risk of the generated candidate space, a convex-hull-based applicability-domain analysis was performed using the SPXY training set in the five-dimensional input space. For the feasible candidates satisfying the H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio constraints, the fractions of hull-included points were 50.49%, 49.78%, and 48.66% for H<sub>2</sub>/CO = 1 under tolerance windows of ±0.05, ±0.10, and ±0.20, respectively, and 49.52%, 47.85%, and 48.59% for H<sub>2</sub>/CO = 2. Importantly, the two final robust recommendations emphasized in this work, corresponding to H<sub>2</sub>/CO = 1 (±0.05) and H<sub>2</sub>/CO = 2 (±0.05), were both located within the convex hull of the training set. In contrast, some conversion-oriented recommendations under broader tolerance windows were outside the hull, indicating a higher likelihood of extrapolation. After generating the 100,000 candidate conditions, a two-step constrained optimization procedure was applied. First, a hard feasibility filter was used to retain only candidate points whose predicted H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio satisfied the selected tolerance window around the target ratio. Second, within this feasible candidate set, the remaining candidates were ranked using a robustness-oriented score:</p>
        <p><disp-formula> <label>(8)</label> <tex-math id="E8"> $$ { Robust ~ score }=Y_{{CO}_{2}}-0.45 \sigma_{{CO}_{2}}-0.15 \sigma_{{H}_{2} / {CO}}-0.08 D_{ {train }} $$ </tex-math></disp-formula></p>
        <p>where <inline-formula><tex-math id="M10">$$  Y_{CO_2} $$</tex-math></inline-formula> is the predicted CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, <inline-formula><tex-math id="M11">$$  \sigma _{CO_2} $$</tex-math></inline-formula> is the disagreement between the GBR and KRR member models for CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, <inline-formula><tex-math id="M12">$$  \sigma _{{H_2}/CO} $$</tex-math></inline-formula> is the disagreement in the predicted H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio, and <italic>D<sub>train</sub></italic> is the nearest standardized distance from the candidate point to the training set. The penalty coefficients were selected empirically to preserve CO<sub>2</sub> conversion as the primary optimization objective while discouraging candidates with larger prediction disagreement and greater extrapolation risk.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec3">
      <title>RESULTS AND DISCUSSION</title>
      <sec id="sec3-1">
        <title>Model training, evaluation and comparison</title>
        <p>The Cu-Pd/TiO<sub>2</sub> photocatalyst was selected based on preliminary catalyst screening and literature-guided catalyst design. Before constructing the machine-learning dataset, several support materials, including TiO<sub>2</sub>, Al<sub>2</sub>O<sub>3</sub>, CeO<sub>2</sub>, and ZSM-5, were evaluated. As shown in <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Table 1</inline-supplementary-material>, among different supports, TiO<sub>2</sub> showed the best overall performance, possibly due to its suitable photoresponse characteristics and compatibility with the plasma reaction environment, which is in good agreement with the results of previous studies<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B40">40</xref>]</sup>. Therefore, TiO<sub>2</sub> was selected as the model support for subsequent catalyst design. The selection of Cu and Pd was based on their complementary catalytic roles. Cu-containing sites have been widely reported to facilitate CO<sub>2</sub> activation and CO formation, whereas Pd can influence interfacial electron redistribution and hydrogen-involved elementary reaction steps<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B41">41</xref>-<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B43">43</xref>]</sup>. In our preliminary comparison results [<inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Table 1</inline-supplementary-material>], Cu/TiO<sub>2</sub> exhibited stronger plasma-photocatalytic coupling and higher CO yield, while Pd/TiO<sub>2</sub> promoted H-related product formation. Therefore, Cu and Pd were co-loaded on TiO<sub>2</sub> to combine the CO-forming ability of Cu with the H-related reaction regulation of Pd and Cu-Pd/TiO<sub>2</sub> was used as a representative model catalyst to establish and validate the machine-learning-guided optimization framework. To assess the synergistic effect in the P<sup>2</sup>CR system, control experiments were conducted to illustrate the synergistic effect of this system, as shown in <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Figure 2</inline-supplementary-material>. The light-only experiment produced only trace amounts of CO (0.013 mmol g<sup>-1</sup> h<sup>-1</sup>) and negligible CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, indicating that under the current conditions, the contribution of photocatalysis to CO<sub>2</sub> reduction is negligible. In contrast, the CO yield using plasma alone was 13.93 mmol g<sup>-1</sup> h<sup>-1</sup> with 1.4% CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, while the plasma-photocatalysis combined conditions significantly increased the CO yield to 28.52 mmol g<sup>-1</sup> h<sup>-1</sup> (2.86% CO<sub>2</sub> conversion), far exceeding the yield achieved by plasma alone. These results clearly demonstrate that light irradiation can effectively promote the plasma-assisted CO<sub>2</sub> reduction process, thereby significantly increasing CO production, demonstrating the coupling and synergistic effect of this P<sup>2</sup>CR system. <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Figures 3</inline-supplementary-material>-<inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">8</inline-supplementary-material> illustrate the detailed characterizations of Cu-Pd/TiO<sub>2</sub> photocatalyst. The results of Gas Chromatography (GC) chromatograms in <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Figure 9</inline-supplementary-material> show that CO was identified as the only detectable carbon-containing product without any other carbon-containing products in this system. Consistent with this observation, the carbon balance remained between 99.70% and 99.93% across 20 independent experimental runs [<inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Table 2</inline-supplementary-material>], indicating good carbon closure and supporting the reliability of the product quantification. In addition, the surface temperatures of the reactor during reaction were measured by infrared thermal images to investigate the thermal effect generated by light and plasma. As shown in <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Figure 10</inline-supplementary-material>, both light and plasma caused an increase in temperature. To eliminate the influence caused by thermal effects, a heat-only control experiment under comparable external temperature conditions (temperature from 30 to 100 °C) was conducted. However, no CO, H<sub>2</sub> or other products were detected, indicating that thermal heating alone was insufficient to drive the observed CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and syngas formation in this system. Moreover, Cu-Pd/TiO<sub>2</sub> was further compared with other state-of-the-art photocatalysts for syngas production [<inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Table 3</inline-supplementary-material>]. Most reported systems exhibited relatively modest gas productivity, with CO and H<sub>2</sub> yields generally reported at the μmol g<sup>-1</sup> h<sup>-1</sup> level. In addition, their H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratios are typically distributed within a comparatively narrow range of 0.31:1-6.00:1, limiting the flexibility of syngas composition control. By comparison, the present Cu-Pd/TiO<sub>2</sub> achieved maximum observed CO and H<sub>2</sub> yields of 56.42 and 53.71 mmol g<sup>-1</sup> h<sup>-1</sup>, respectively, and enabled a wide range of H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratios (0.022:1-53.71:1). These results indicate that the Cu-Pd/TiO<sub>2</sub> photocatalyst in the present system provides both high syngas productivity and substantially broader flexibility in H<sub>2</sub>/CO-ratio regulation.</p>
        <p>Based on 120 experimental runs in <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Tables 4</inline-supplementary-material> and <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">5</inline-supplementary-material>, the hybrid model was trained and tested. As shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">Figure 2A</xref>, the proposed hybrid model achieved the highest R<sup>2</sup>, with a value of approximately 0.996. It slightly outperformed KRR and GBR, which achieved R<sup>2</sup> values of approximately 0.992 and 0.987, respectively. Compared with traditional models like K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) (0.84) and Decision Tree regressors (0.89), the hybrid model showed larger absolute R<sup>2</sup> improvements of approximately 0.16 and 0.11, respectively. These results indicate that the hybrid architecture more effectively captures the nonlinear relationships embedded in the experimental dataset. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">Figure 2B</xref>-<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">D</xref> further compare the predictive performance of different models for CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO yield, and H<sub>2</sub> yield on both training and test sets. For CO<sub>2</sub> conversion [<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">Figure 2B</xref>], the hybrid model achieves a test-set R<sup>2</sup> of 0.947, compared with 0.921 for KRR and 0.940 for GBR, corresponding to increases of 0.026 and 0.007, respectively. It also achieves the lowest test-set RMSE (0.271) and a tied-lowest test-set MAE (0.221, equal to GBR). For CO yield [<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">Figure 2C</xref>], the hybrid model reaches an R<sup>2</sup> of 0.950 on the test set, slightly outperforming KRR (0.945) and GBR (0.934), demonstrating improved stability across both training and testing domains. For H<sub>2</sub> yield [<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig2">Figure 2D</xref>], the hybrid model achieves a test-set R<sup>2</sup> of 0.954, higher than KRR (0.928) and slightly higher than GBR (0.950). The hybrid model has a lower test-set MAE than GBR; however, its test-set RMSE (1.60) is slightly higher than that of GBR (1.50). These results indicate a balanced error profile rather than consistently lower errors across all evaluation metrics. Parity plots in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig3">Figure 3A</xref>-<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig3">C</xref> further support these results, with the training and test data distributed around the fitted lines. Together, these analyses indicate that the hybrid model achieves a balance between training accuracy and test-set generalization, providing accurate and robust predictions for all three outputs. The model is therefore well suited to multi-objective prediction of the three reaction targets. To further assess the predictive performance of the hybrid model, 10 unseen experimental conditions were generated within the original experimental ranges and evaluated using the hybrid model. As shown in <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Tables 6</inline-supplementary-material> and <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">7</inline-supplementary-material>, the predicted values were in close agreement with the corresponding experimental results, further supporting the predictive capability of the hybrid model for this P<sup>2</sup>CR system. The correlation matrix of all variables is shown in <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Figure 11</inline-supplementary-material>. To assess whether the predictive performance of the models depended on catalyst-mass normalization, additional models were developed to predict the absolute CO and H<sub>2</sub> production rates in <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Table 8</inline-supplementary-material>.</p>
        <fig id="fig2" position="float">
          <label>Figure 2</label>
          <caption>
            <p>Performance comparison of the machine-learning models. (A) Overall comparison based on the training-set R<sup>2</sup>; Performance of the hybrid model, KRR and GBR for (B) CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, (C) CO yield and (D) H<sub>2</sub> yield. RMSE: Root mean square error; MAE: mean absolute error; MSE: mean squared error; SPXY: sample set partitioning based on joint X-Y distances; GBR: gradient boosting regressor; KRR: kernel ridge regression; RF: random forest; SVR: support vector regression; BPANN: backpropagation artificial neural network; KNN: K-nearest neighbors.</p>
          </caption>
          <graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="em60216.fig.2.jpg" />
        </fig>
        <fig id="fig3" position="float" width="450">
          <label>Figure 3</label>
          <caption>
            <p>Predicted versus experimental values for (A) CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, (B) CO yield and (C) H<sub>2</sub> yield; Permutation importance of five input parameters for (D) CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, (E) CO yield and (F) H<sub>2</sub> yield.</p>
          </caption>
          <graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="em60216.fig.3.jpg" />
        </fig>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec3-2">
        <title>Importance analysis of different parameters</title>
        <p>To further assess the sensitivity of the model predictions to the operating variables, an R<sup>2</sup>-drop permutation analysis was performed to quantify their relative importance, as shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig3">Figure 3D</xref>-<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig3">F</xref>. Relative humidity was identified as the most influential variable across three outputs, followed by light intensity and discharge power, whereas gas flow and catalyst dosage showed comparatively smaller contributions. These rankings describe the sensitivity of the trained model within the investigated domain and should not be interpreted as direct evidence of mechanistic importance. The importance of relative humidity may reflect the influence of water participation and the reaction environment on the predicted outputs. These effects could be associated with changes in surface reaction conditions and interfacial electron or proton transfer processes<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B44">44</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">45</xref>]</sup>. The importance of light intensity may reflect its association with photocatalyst excitation and the resulting changes in the model prediction<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B46">46</xref>]</sup>. Similarly, the importance of discharge power may reflect the influence of plasma energy input on the discharge environment and the associated reaction conditions<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">20</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B47">47</xref>]</sup>. Gas flow rate and catalyst dosage showed lower overall importance than relative humidity, light intensity, and discharge power. For gas flow rate, its influence was more pronounced for CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and CO yield than for H<sub>2</sub> yield. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig3">Figure 3D</xref>-<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig3">F</xref> presents permutation-based model importance rather than direct causal response curves. Thus, the analysis identifies the variables to which the model predictions are most sensitive and provides guidance for operating-condition optimization.</p>
        <p>Because the operating variables are strongly coupled, their combined effects on the reaction outputs must be considered when interpreting the P<sup>2</sup>CR system. We therefore used the hybrid machine-learning model to examine the response trends associated with the most influential variables. Based on the R<sup>2</sup>-drop analysis, discharge power, relative humidity and light intensity were selected for detailed response-trend analysis. As shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig4">Figure 4A</xref> and <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig4">B</xref>, the model predictions closely followed the experimental trends, consistent with the high R<sup>2</sup> values and low MAE and RMSE values. These results indicate that the hybrid model captured the nonlinear response behavior of the P<sup>2</sup>CR system. Under the conditions examined, CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and CO yield reached their maximum values at a discharge power of 40 W and decreased at higher power. One possible explanation is the non-uniform electric-field distribution within the square reactor. The reactor geometry may produce local electric-field enhancement or weakening near the corners and edges, thereby affecting the spatial distribution of the discharge and reactive species<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B48">48</xref>-<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B51">51</xref>]</sup>. However, this explanation should be regarded as a hypothesis. Another possible explanation is that excessive discharge power may also induce local heating or alter the distribution of reactive species, thereby affecting the apparent catalytic performance<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B47">47</xref>]</sup>. In contrast, H<sub>2</sub> formation increased with increasing power. This trend may reflect the different responses of CO<sub>2</sub> reduction and hydrogen formation to increasing energy input. The greater thermodynamic stability of CO<sub>2</sub> and the potentially more accessible pathway for hydrogen formation possibly favor H<sub>2</sub> production under higher-power conditions<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">45</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B52">52</xref>]</sup>. These results suggest that moderate discharge power is a critical operating window in this system, reflecting the nonlinear role of power in regulating reactive species generation and reaction kinetics in the P<sup>2</sup>CR process.</p>
        <fig id="fig4" position="float">
          <label>Figure 4</label>
          <caption>
            <p>Comparison of model prediction with experimental data for the effect of discharge power on the plasma-photocatalytic CO<sub>2</sub> and H<sub>2</sub>O conversion: (A) CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and (B) CO yield and H<sub>2</sub> yield (Relative humidity = 58%, light intensity = 1,000 mW cm<sup>-2</sup>, gas flow = 30 mL min<sup>-1</sup>, catalyst dosage = 40 mg); Predicted effects of (C) relative humidity (Discharge power = 50 W, light intensity = 1,000 mW cm<sup>-2</sup>, gas flow = 20 mL min<sup>-1</sup>, catalyst dosage = 60 mg) and (D) light intensity (Discharge power = 50 W, relative humidity = 32%, gas flow = 20 mL min<sup>-1</sup>, catalyst dosage = 60 mg) on the plasma-photocatalytic CO<sub>2</sub> and H<sub>2</sub>O conversion reaction performance.</p>
          </caption>
          <graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="em60216.fig.4.jpg" />
        </fig>
        <p>
          <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig4">Figure 4C</xref> further illustrates the effect of relative humidity on reaction outputs, while <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Figure 12</inline-supplementary-material> compares the experimental and predicted values. Increasing the relative humidity from 32% to 58% decreased CO<sub>2</sub> conversion from 5.31% to 2.27% and CO yield from 50.67 to 12.19 mmol g<sup>-1</sup> h<sup>-1</sup>. In contrast, H<sub>2</sub> yield increased from 2.91 mmol g<sup>-1</sup> h<sup>-1</sup> to 16.32 mmol g<sup>-1</sup> h<sup>-1</sup>, which is consistent with the literature<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">45</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B53">53</xref>-<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B55">55</xref>]</sup>. The increased water content may suppress the plasma discharge and thereby reduce the effective discharge density or modify electron-energy distribution<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B53">53</xref>]</sup>. A further possible explanation is that water-derived hydroxyl radicals could participate in secondary reactions involving CO intermediates and potentially promote CO reoxidation to CO<sub>2</sub><sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B53">53</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B55">55</xref>]</sup>. This interpretation is proposed as a mechanistic hypothesis based on previously reported reaction pathways. Increased proton availability may also contribute to enhanced hydrogen formation, consistent with observations in other non-thermal plasma systems<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">20</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">54</xref>]</sup>. Overall, the model-predicted trends identify relative humidity as an important operating variable for regulating the balance between CO<sub>2</sub> reduction and H<sub>2</sub> formation, although the underlying elementary pathways remain to be established experimentally.</p>
        <p>
          <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig4">Figure 4D</xref> and <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Figure 13</inline-supplementary-material> show the model-predicted influence of light intensity on the reaction outputs. A similarly nonlinear response was observed. Under the selected conditions, CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and CO yield reached their maximum values at an intermediate light intensity of approximately 1,000 mW cm<sup>-2</sup>, with values of 5.31% and 50.67 mmol g<sup>-1</sup> h<sup>-1</sup>, respectively. This indicates that moderate illumination may enhance photocatalyst excitation and facilitate the participation of photogenerated charge carriers in CO<sub>2</sub> reduction in this P<sup>2</sup>CR system, potentially in conjunction with plasma-induced activation<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B20">20</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B56">56</xref>]</sup>. However, further increasing the light intensity decreased both CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and CO yield, whereas H<sub>2</sub> yield increased from 1.33 to 4.07 mmol g<sup>-1</sup> h<sup>-1</sup>. This trend suggests that excessive illumination may favor water-related reduction and H<sub>2</sub> formation in this system<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B46">46</xref>]</sup>. Overall, these results indicate that light intensity has an optimal window in the P<sup>2</sup>CR system with both insufficient and excessive illumination being unfavorable for maximizing CO<sub>2</sub> reduction. <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Figure 14</inline-supplementary-material> shows the local model-predicted response to gas flow rate while discharge power, light intensity, relative humidity, and catalyst dosage were held constant. Increasing the gas flow rate from 20 to 60 mL min<sup>-1</sup> caused an overall decrease in CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and CO yield. H<sub>2</sub> yield also decreased, but the decline was less pronounced than the declines observed for CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and CO yield. Gas flow rate affects the reaction through both residence-time and throughput effects. In the present reactor, the effective discharge volume was approximately 20 cm<sup>3</sup>. Increasing the total gas flow rate from 20 to 60 mL min<sup>-1</sup> therefore reduced the nominal gas residence time from approximately 60 to 20 s. The shorter residence time may reduce the interaction time among CO<sub>2</sub>, plasma-generated energetic species, and subsequent surface reduction reactions. This effect could account for the decrease in CO<sub>2</sub> conversion. CO yield showed a similar response because CO formation is closely linked to the extent of CO<sub>2</sub> reduction and may require sufficient interaction time for the formation and desorption of CO intermediates. The weaker response of H<sub>2</sub> yield suggests that the H<sub>2</sub>-forming pathway is less sensitive to gas flow rate than the CO-producing pathway. This is likely because H<sub>2</sub> formation does not require the same sequence of CO<sub>2</sub> activation and CO-intermediate formation as the CO-producing pathway. Consequently, H<sub>2</sub> yield is affected by gas flow rate to a lesser extent. The model-predicted response to catalyst dosage and the corresponding model-experiment correlations for catalyst dosage are provided in <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Figure 15</inline-supplementary-material>. This target-dependent behavior means that maximizing CO<sub>2</sub> conversion alone is insufficient to guarantee the desired syngas ratio. It is therefore necessary to combine model interpretation with constrained optimization for experimental condition screening.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec3-3">
        <title>SHAP analysis</title>
        <p>To further examine how the operating parameters contributed to the model predictions, SHAP analysis was performed across the experimental domain<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B38">38</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B39">39</xref>]</sup>. As shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig5">Figure 5A</xref>-<xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig5">C</xref>, relative humidity, light intensity, and discharge power were identified as the most influential predictors for CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO yield and H<sub>2</sub> yield, consistent with the R<sup>2</sup>-drop analysis. SHAP analysis also revealed the direction and distribution of each feature’s contribution across individual samples. For CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and CO yield, samples with high relative humidity were mainly located in the negative SHAP region, whereas samples with lower humidity were more associated with positive SHAP values. Thus, higher humidity was associated with lower predicted CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and CO yield. By contrast, high humidity was generally associated with positive SHAP values for H<sub>2</sub> yield. This output-dependent pattern is consistent with the response-trend analysis.</p>
        <fig id="fig5" position="float">
          <label>Figure 5</label>
          <caption>
            <p>SHAP-value distribution for the five input parameters for (A) CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, (B) CO yield and (C) H<sub>2</sub> yield; (D) Optimization results of the hybrid model under H<sub>2</sub>/CO-constraints. SHAP: SHapley Additive exPlanations.</p>
          </caption>
          <graphic xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="em60216.fig.5.jpg" />
        </fig>
        <p>The SHAP distributions for light intensity and discharge power showed a pronounced nonlinear pattern. For CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and CO yield, moderate light intensity and discharge power were generally associated with positive SHAP contributions, whereas higher values did not further increase, and in some cases decreased, the model predictions. This indicates that the hybrid model captured an optimal operating window within the investigated domain. For H<sub>2</sub> yield, higher relative humidity, light intensity, and discharge power were generally associated with positive SHAP contributions, indicating that the model predictions were sensitive to these variables within the investigated range. By comparison, gas flow rate and catalyst dosage showed relatively small contributions to the model predictions between 30 and 60 mg catalyst dosage and across the investigated flow-rate range. Gas flow rate nevertheless showed a more noticeable contribution to the predictions of CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and CO yield than to H<sub>2</sub> yield. Overall, SHAP analysis provides an interpretable description of the positive and negative contributions of the input variables to the model predictions. These findings indicate that the model captured nonlinear input-output relationships within the P<sup>2</sup>CR system while maintaining good predictive performance across the investigated experimental conditions. Because global feature-importance measures do not fully describe conditional effects between operating variables, a low-high 2 × 2 conditional interaction analysis was additionally performed. The analysis procedure and complete results are provided in <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Table 9</inline-supplementary-material>.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec id="sec3-4">
        <title>Hybrid model application</title>
        <p>The importance, response-trend, and SHAP analyses collectively indicate that the P<sup>2</sup>CR system exhibits strongly nonlinear, output-dependent behaviors. Relative humidity, light intensity, and discharge power produced different responses for CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO yield, and H<sub>2</sub> yield. In particular, conditions that favored CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and CO formation did not necessarily produce the desired H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio. Therefore, the trained hybrid model was applied to constrained optimization, aiming to identify operating conditions that satisfied prescribed H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratios while maintaining relatively high CO<sub>2</sub> conversion. A total of 100,000 candidate conditions were generated by random sampling within the experimental ranges of the five operating variables. The hybrid model was used to predict CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO yield, and H<sub>2</sub> yield for each candidate, from which the corresponding H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio was calculated. H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratios of 1 and 2 were selected as representative targets for downstream syngas applications. An H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio of 1 is relevant to oxo-synthesis, whereas a ratio of 2 is commonly associated with methanol synthesis and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B57">57</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B58">58</xref>]</sup>. Among the 100,000 generated candidate conditions, 47,245 (47.2%) were located within the five-dimensional convex hull of the SPXY training set, whereas 52,755 (52.8%) fell outside the hull [<inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Figure 16</inline-supplementary-material>]. Nevertheless, the large fraction of candidate conditions outside the hull highlights the potential risk of extrapolation when screening the broader hypothetical design space. Candidate conditions satisfying tolerance windows of ±0.05, ±0.10 and ±0.20 were screened. Among the feasible candidates, the condition with the highest predicted CO<sub>2</sub> conversion was selected as the conversion-oriented recommendation. Because predictions outside the training domain may be less reliable, the highest-conversion candidate was not necessarily considered the most robust choice<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B59">59</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B60">60</xref>]</sup>. We therefore introduced a robustness-oriented recommendation strategy that considered predicted CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, disagreement between the GBR and KRR models, deviation from the target H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio and distance from the training-data distribution. Smaller model disagreement, lower ratio error and greater proximity to the experimental data were considered indicators of lower prediction risk<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B60">60</xref>-<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B62">62</xref>]</sup>. As shown in <xref ref-type="fig" rid="fig5">Figure 5D</xref>, each point represents a candidate reaction condition. A trade-off was observed between CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and syngas composition. Candidates with higher predicted CO<sub>2</sub> conversion were generally concentrated in the lower-H<sub>2</sub>/CO region, whereas CO<sub>2</sub> conversion tended to decrease as the H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio increased. This indicates that high CO<sub>2</sub> conversion and a prescribed syngas composition cannot be optimized simultaneously without imposing an explicit ratio constraint<sup>[<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B45">45</xref>,<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="B54">54</xref>]</sup>. The two final recommended conditions with a tolerance of ±0.05 were therefore selected under the specified H<sub>2</sub>/CO constraint (1:1 and 2:1). Importantly, these two conditions were located within the training-set convex hull. The experimental validation results in <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Tables 10</inline-supplementary-material> and <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">11</inline-supplementary-material> were consistent with the model predictions, supporting the use of the hybrid model for operating-condition screening within the investigated P<sup>2</sup>CR domain. In addition, CO productivity per unit plasma power was calculated for the two recommended conditions and is presented in <inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Table 12</inline-supplementary-material>. The condition targeting an H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio of 1 achieved a CO productivity normalized by plasma power of 16.5 ± <InlineParagraph>0.9 mmol kWh<sup>-1</sup>,</InlineParagraph> whereas the condition targeting an H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratio of 2 achieved 9.8 ± 0.3 mmol kWh<sup>-1</sup>. These results indicate that the H<sub>2</sub>/CO = 1 condition was more favorable for CO production per unit plasma power, whereas the H<sub>2</sub>/CO = 2 condition produced a more H<sub>2</sub>-rich syngas composition.</p>
      </sec>
    </sec>
    <sec id="sec4">
      <title>CONCLUSIONS</title>
      <p>In this work, we developed and evaluated a small-sample machine-learning framework for a DBD plasma-coupled photocatalytic CO<sub>2</sub> reduction system using Cu-Pd/TiO<sub>2</sub>. Based on 120 experimental runs, the shared-weight GBR-KRR model achieved test-set R<sup>2</sup> values of 0.947, 0.950, and 0.954 for CO<sub>2</sub> conversion, CO yield, and H<sub>2</sub> yield, respectively. Permutation importance and SHAP analyses identified relative humidity, light intensity, and discharge power as the most influential predictors within the investigated operating domain. These rankings describe model sensitivity and should not be interpreted as direct evidence of mechanistic importance. The trained model was further used to screen operating conditions under target H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratios of 1 and 2. The selected conditions were experimentally validated in the same Cu-Pd/TiO<sub>2</sub> system, yielding H<sub>2</sub>/CO ratios of 1.06 ± 0.03 and 1.99 ± 0.07, respectively. Although the experimental mean value for the target of 1 is slightly above the nominal range of 1 ± 0.05, it remains very close to the desired value. These results indicate that the proposed framework can identify operating conditions close to the desired H<sub>2</sub>/CO targets within the present P<sup>2</sup>CR system. The conclusions of this study are limited to the Cu-Pd/TiO<sub>2</sub> photocatalyst, the square-quartz DBD reactor and the investigated ranges of discharge power, catalyst dosage, gas flow rate, relative humidity, and light intensity. Further work using broader catalyst systems, reactor configurations, plasma conditions, and independently collected datasets will be necessary to assess the generalizability and robustness of the framework.</p>
    </sec>
  </body>
  <back>
    <sec>
      <title>DECLARATIONS</title>
      <sec>
        <title>Acknowledgments</title>
        <p>The authors wish to thank Prof. Aezid Hassan Najmi for help with language polishing.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec>
        <title>Author’s contributions</title>
        <p>Substantial contributions to content discussion: Bi, R.; Gao, T.; Wang, Y.</p>
        <p>Experimental equipment setup and maintenance: Wang, D.</p>
        <p>Data curation, formal analysis: Zhu, H.; Xi, Z.; Qin, H.; Wang, H.; Geng, Z.; Yao, Y.; Guan, Y.</p>
        <p>Manuscript revision before submission: Bi, R.; Zhang, H.; Wang, Y.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec>
        <title>Availability of data and materials</title>
        <p>The original contributions presented in this study are included in the article/<inline-supplementary-material content-type="local-data" mimetype="application/pdf" xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf">Supplementary Materials</inline-supplementary-material>. Further inquiries can be directed to the corresponding author(s).</p>
      </sec>
      <sec>
        <title>Financial support and sponsorship</title>
        <p>The authors wish to thank the Ningbo Science and Technology Innovation Yongjiang 2035 Key R&amp;D Project (No. 2025Z111) and the 2023 Ningbo Natural Science Funding Commonweal Programme Major Project (No. 2023S019). This work was also supported by the Ningbo Key Laboratory of Typical Solid Waste High-Value Utilisation and Low-Carbon Materials.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec>
        <title>AI and AI-assisted tools statement</title>
        <p>Not applicable.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec>
        <title>Conflicts of interest</title>
        <p>Wang, D. is affiliated with Beijing Perfectlight Technology Co., Ltd., which is associated with the DBD reactor system used in this study. The company had no involvement in the study design, data collection, data analysis, interpretation of the results, or the decision to publish the manuscript. The other authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec>
        <title>Ethical approval and consent to participate</title>
        <p>Not applicable.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec>
        <title>Consent for publication</title>
        <p>Not applicable.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec>
        <title>Copyright</title>
        <p>© The Author(s) 2026.</p>
      </sec>
      <sec sec-type="supplementary-material">
        <title>Supplementary Materials</title>
        <supplementary-material content-type="local-data">
          <media xlink:href="em60216-SupplementaryMaterials.pdf" mimetype="application/pdf">
            <caption>
              <p>Supplementary Materials</p>
            </caption>
          </media>
        </supplementary-material>
      </sec>
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